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sebinsua's profile
Seb Insua
Seb Insua
Seb Insua
@sebinsua

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Seb Insua

@sebinsua

→ @nouswaves

London, England
sebinsua.com
Joined September 2015

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 1 Oct 2018
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      Nate Silver Retweeted John Podhoretz

      I said the totality of claims he made under oath about his drinking, which include that he didn't black out, pass out, have memory lapses or become aggressive, 99.99%+ for sure include lies. I stand 100% behind that assessment.https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/1046906804075188224 …

      Nate Silver added,

      John PodhoretzVerified account @jpodhoretz
      Nate Silver just said in his podcast that K saying he never passed out while drinking is 99.99 % likely a lie. Really?
      Show this thread
      586 replies 1,679 retweets 10,724 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 1 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @NateSilver538

      I have no way of judging this man, however are you claiming that he's lying about this because it seems unrealistic to you? I don't think it's true that *everybody* drinks to the point of passing out. I also think that many are without serious memory lapses or anger problems.

      5 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
    3. Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 1 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @sebinsua @NateSilver538

      It is of course possible that he used to drink until he got angry and passed out, but I think your confidence level on this is insanely high.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    4. (((patriot)))‏ @iBreezy6 1 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @sebinsua @NateSilver538

      Are we supposed to consider Kavanaugh's testimony like he's just a randomly selected man off the street? And not look at, like, every newspaper over the past two weeks?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @iBreezy6 @NateSilver538

      The argument seems to be "Kavanaugh has been drunk before, therefore he must have been black-out drunk, therefore his memories are unreliable, therefore he is a rapist". If prosecution depends on getting him to nullify his speech it is tenuous and requires better corroboration.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. (((patriot)))‏ @iBreezy6 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @sebinsua @NateSilver538

      The argument is that his blanket denials of everything from blackouts to passing out to even aggression are far too broad to be true, especially in light of the other evidence available to us, and he is certainly lying to us about some portion of it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @iBreezy6 @NateSilver538

      One would expect broad questions to be an attempt to get at the core of one's personality when drunk. Would you describe this person as an angry drunk as opposed to: has this person been perceived by a single person as angry when drunk before?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @sebinsua @iBreezy6 @NateSilver538

      The current corroboration is weak and the evidence is flimsy. It is important that prosecution be evidence-based and not just amount to selecting a small group of people that agree with your determination and ignoring the others.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. (((patriot)))‏ @iBreezy6 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @sebinsua @NateSilver538

      This is not a prosecution. The evidence may be weak, but Kavanaugh burned his credibility.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. (((patriot)))‏ @iBreezy6 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @iBreezy6 @sebinsua @NateSilver538

      Imagine you return from a corporate training event in Dallas. Your HR manager contacts you and says you have been accused of serious misconduct while on the trip. Your denials include: "I've never even been to Texas!" Does it really matter how strong the evidence against you is?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Seb Insua‏ @sebinsua 2 Oct 2018
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      Replying to @iBreezy6 @NateSilver538

      He denied being black-out drunk, but said he'd fell asleep from drinking. This is sort of like saying "I've driven to Texas but I've never driven there in a stolen car." It's not the same as what you said. To claim perjury you need proof that he's been black-out drunk.

      7:36 AM - 2 Oct 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. (((patriot)))‏ @iBreezy6 2 Oct 2018
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          Replying to @sebinsua @NateSilver538

          Or that he'd been aggressive, or that he'd demonstrated memory lapses after a night of heavy drinking. Again, taken in sum, the breadth of his denials are simply unbelievable, even before anybody mentions sex or Renate or UB40.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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