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1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID;https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/ …
I did my graduate studies in a quant area, so I appreciate the difficulty the Imperial team has had with these projections. But going from herd immunity as preferred, to a million deaths to “NEVERMIND, 20k and the hospital system will be fine” is a joke.
The new calculation his based on having introduced social distancing and increasing hospital capacity. The 250,000 deaths (not a million) was based on doing effectively nothing.
I'm an English major and even I knew both ends of the funnel were wildly speculative and imprecise.
Exactly! I’ve been using the cruise ships as examples of how it’s not as contagious or deadly as any other flu...
“To be fair, the Imperial people are the some of the best infectious disease modellers on the planet,” Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, told New Scientist last week. “But it is risky to put all your eggs in a single basket.”
Yet the world did
The original model had as low as 20k deaths. The model didn't change.
Thank you...someone needs to be held in account because of the hysteria that was caused by such false estimates
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