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sdbaral's profile
Stefan Baral
Stefan Baral
Stefan Baral
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@sdbaral

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Stefan BaralVerified account

@sdbaral

🇨🇦🇸🇪, MD, MPH FRCPC (CM) & CCFP (GP), 🏳️‍🌈 ally ID Epi @JohnsHopkinsSPH (own views) No $COI Papers: https://bit.ly/37nPMlX  Course: https://bit.ly/3rl28F0 

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jhsph.edu/faculty/direct…
Joined April 2009

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    1. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      The BioNTech/Pfizer data is out—NEJM & FDA report. I understand this wasn't in the design & the long-term protection from single dose is open question. But given this sharp drop after 14 days after one dose, can someone explain why single dose isn't very very high on the agenda?pic.twitter.com/sxqwACGulz

      78 replies 334 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Yes, ideally there would have been a single-dose study as well. But here we are, and with a shortage that will mean many more people will die and everything else will be delayed. Personally, looking at that data, I'd quickly take one dose to give someone else a chance at one.

      17 replies 31 retweets 382 likes
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    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      zeynep tufekci Retweeted

      Maybe. There are 1256 people who did not receive the second dose in the trial. Yes, small group but what happened to them? I get it, ideally, we have a single dose study. Not so ideally, we have this data and a severe shortage. Seems worth a discussion. https://twitter.com/Valentine721/status/1337048321026875394 …

      zeynep tufekci added,

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      7 replies 13 retweets 251 likes
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    4. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      Pfizer reports "52.4% efficacy" for single dose but that includes the first seven days, before things kick in, when most new infections happened. At 10-12 days, the chart (eyeballing, no underlying data yet) looks ~80-85% efficacy. Unpleasant trade-off but reality is unpleasant.

      21 replies 48 retweets 430 likes
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    5. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      I'm hoping for immunology/virology people to tell us the potential trade-offs here. We know one side: due to shortages, hundreds of millions of people will not get vaccinated anytime soon. What does the calculation on the other side look like?

      16 replies 17 retweets 260 likes
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    6. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 10 Dec 2020

      At a minimum minimum, there should be an immediate single-dose trial launched, like yesterday. We sadly have a raging epidemic and will get results quickly but I think not giving this real thought now—and an explanation to the public—would be a grave mistake, given the stakes.

      12 replies 32 retweets 343 likes
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      Stefan Baral‏Verified account @sdbaral 10 Dec 2020
      Replying to @zeynep

      Dose de-escalation/non-inferiority trials tend to be very difficult to get pharma to agree to. But indeed, it is an open question of the non-inferiority of 6 weeks after one dose vs 2 weeks after the 2nd dose. Imagine Pfizer/moderna fights back on behalf of their shareholders.

      7:17 AM - 10 Dec 2020
      • 9 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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        2. Nicholas Weaver‏Verified account @ncweaver 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @sdbaral @zeynep

          Could they? Once the vaccine is out there this is something a major hospital chain could run as a study independently of Pfizer/Moderna. The protocol is “easy”, the recruitment of volunteers is trivial,

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Stefan Baral‏Verified account @sdbaral 10 Dec 2020
          Replying to @ncweaver @zeynep

          I think question is whether Pfizer/Moderna needs to approve. The rules may be different as well as Moderna took development costs so IP rules may be different. Either way, we will learn in Phase IV since some folks wont come back for second shot--so real world data will tell.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Patrick Breitenbach  🇺🇸‏ @pbreit 13 Dec 2020
          Replying to @sdbaral @zeynep

          Uhm...there’s a pandemic underway you know.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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