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Now, on this I do know that with Sam Gyimah having been announced as the Lib Dem candidate, constituency level polling is showing him as edging it. It seems counterintuitive, but that is what the data shows. As more MRP polling is plugged in, this might change, but it’s the case.
I think this recommendation is almost a guaranteed way to get a Tory gain
I’ve told you what the data shows. It would be strange for us to not use it.
How many people were polled? What was the wording of the question? Were all candidates named, or just him? It's important to be transparent about the reasoning for the recommendation if you want it to be trusted, all the more so if it's (as you accept) counterintuitive.
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