I'm sure you've read Kahneman's discussion of the reliability of pundits in "Thinking, Fast and Slow." It's brilliant. Pundits are generally not any more reliable than educated lay guessing, but escape consequences of failed predictions through all manner of cognitive illusions.
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Hmmm... well
@Steve_Sailer nailed this one regarding Iraqhttp://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/cousin-marriage-conundrum/ … -
And by only using open-source data
@gcochran99 could figure out before the war that the idea of Iraq having a functioning nuke program was total nonsense. Word-search "Greg" & read what he wrote before the war: https://www.jerrypournelle.com/archives2/archives2mail/mail227.html …
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
These systems are built on an accountability model that is orthogonal to actual performance.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Isn't this you following up right here? Kind of falsified your own argument in one tweet.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Dito was Pokemon that could turn into every other pokemon. Y (yjussayy) would a butterfly become a caterpillar again. Butterflies still crawl around like a capapiler. I don’t know what falsification means but, false I fication. I know wha false means, I sometimes like e with name
-
s like brucey (cute) cuter than bruce. Multiplication x falsification = nothings false so with a bit of cuteness it’s mainly going to get a lot better ? You tell me..
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Believe it or not, Ehrlich is at it again...https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I much prefer trying and failing than not trying. Hindsight is of course 20/20. Kaplan would run circles around you on this subject Steve.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This will be the most underrated tweet of the year.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.