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sapinker's profile
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
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@sapinker

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Steven PinkerVerified account

@sapinker

Cognitive scientist at Harvard.

Boston, MA
pinker.wjh.harvard.edu
Joined January 2010

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    Steven Pinker‏Verified account @sapinker Mar 31

    Steven Pinker Retweeted Steven Pinker

    Nigeria conquers Niger, Benin. AIDS worsens. World Wars fought over Africa, Balkans. Egypt & Ethiopia war over water. China breaks apart. US, India too. Cities replace nation-states. Crime grows. Canadian provinces join US. US Hispanics join Mexico; African Americans, Africa.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/980254095729659906 …

    Steven Pinker added,

    Steven PinkerVerified account @sapinker
    Kaplan's 1994 Coming Anarchy article https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/ … deserves Paul Ehrlich Prize for spectacular wrongness: 26 utterly false predictions.
    6:28 PM - 31 Mar 2018
    • 56 Retweets
    • 174 Likes
    • Begum Zorlu Audrey Taft Christian Morse Subramanian Kalpathi Glengarry Glen Coco wiseQB Ben PSCV Huc
    14 replies 56 retweets 174 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Obaluaê & guillotine‏ @wfomentar Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker @nickgillespie

        More interesting and more appropriate for understanding the power-worshipping chattering class is the con job of James Fallows, et alia, regarding Japan's and the East Asian economic model's invincibility.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. James Fallows‏Verified account @JamesFallows Mar 31
        Replying to @wfomentar @sapinker @nickgillespie

        Feel free to read actual journalism of those days! Eg https://www.amazon.com/More-Like-Us-James-Fallows/dp/0395528100 … Arguments: 1) Japan NOT converging on Adam Smith model (true) 2) US response should be to maximize its very different strengths (More Like Us) 3) Japan’s goal=protecting high-value producers (still has)

        1 reply 3 retweets 3 likes
      4. Obaluaê & guillotine‏ @wfomentar Mar 31
        Replying to @JamesFallows @sapinker @nickgillespie

        http://www.cato.org/publications/trade-policy-analysis/revisiting-revisionists-rise-fall-japanese-economic-model …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. James Fallows‏Verified account @JamesFallows Mar 31
        Replying to @wfomentar @sapinker @nickgillespie

        That piece was wrong 20 years ago, and is still wrong. (That’s what you’re working from??)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Obaluaê & guillotine‏ @wfomentar Mar 31
        Replying to @JamesFallows @sapinker @nickgillespie

        I always liked this one on the wisdom of Friedrich List and apologizing for state economic policy being concerned with the welfare, indeed sovereignty, of people in groups—in communities, in nations.https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1993/12/how-the-world-works/305854/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. Greg Lukianoff‏Verified account @glukianoff Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker @DJGrothe

        At least one part of that sounds great. Can the U.S. keep Montreal? :-)

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Bernard H. ✡️‏ @yeshuabyoseph Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        To seriously delve into futurism is amazingly complex - The variables are astronomically many.(probability,game theory,complex systems... Who has a good grasp on prediction?)

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Brandon Finn‏ @BtheFinn Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        @1lindsayk this is that article from 1994 I often talk about and dislike, because of points made by @sapinker here

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Holtz‏ @Biorealism Apr 10
        Replying to @sapinker

        Kaplan might be proven right? African population bomb is a threat to stability.pic.twitter.com/ePOWEq2ELa

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jack Django‏ @JackDDjango Apr 2
        Replying to @sapinker

        Utterly false? or just not explosive as described? Since 1994 the problems and social divisions he outlaid have only worsened, not resolved themselves. Kaplan stated "a few decades hence" - perhaps we ought to suspend our judgement. I think the worst is yet to come.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Matthew Pirkowski‏ @MattPirkowski Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        A few of these are still on the table: - Conflict w/ China over their expanded footprint in Africa - Cities arguably more important than nation states (see @paragkhanna’s Connectography) - Recent upticks in crime, though not yet trends, per se Was there a time horizon?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. tom davis‏ @tomarama Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        Sounds like what success for the people who yearn for the end of Western Civilization are dreaming of.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Haven Monahan‏ @HavenMonahan Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        Four billion sub-Saharan Africans trying to bum-rush their way into Europe and Israel. White goyim will retreat to Eastern Europe; Western Europe will become a dysfunction African banlieue. And no, Hispanics and Blacks will NEVER voluntarily separate from their white US hosts.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Cathode X-Ray‏ @cathode_ray8 Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        There still might be a proxy war in Africa between NATO countries and Russia/China over their lithium supply.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Bill Griffith‏ @BilGriffith Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        That's not much of a prediction "China breaks apart" Da.. China breaks apart on a daily basis.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Echo Chamber‏ @EchoChamber451 Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        I find this sort of exercise interesting, not just because these sorts of dire predictions rarely come true, but because it’s hard to know if some would have occurred had they not been predicted, and avoided.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Benjamin Holm‏ @benjaminholm86 Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Really a cowardly statement imo Steve. Try predicting geopolitics in 2 decades. Why go after someone for going out on a limb? If you can do better try and let us judge.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Echo Chamber‏ @EchoChamber451 Mar 31
        Replying to @benjaminholm86 @sapinker

        I don’t think he’s trying to be mean, just countering the fatalistic narratives that pervade our discourse. He’s also promoting his latest book.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Benjamin Holm‏ @benjaminholm86 Mar 31
        Replying to @EchoChamber451 @sapinker

        Lol true. Not sure Kaplan is fatalistic though.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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