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sapinker's profile
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Verified account
@sapinker

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Steven PinkerVerified account

@sapinker

Cognitive scientist at Harvard.

Boston, MA
pinker.wjh.harvard.edu
Joined January 2010

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    Steven Pinker‏Verified account @sapinker Mar 31

    Kaplan's 1994 Coming Anarchy article https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1994/02/the-coming-anarchy/304670/ … deserves Paul Ehrlich Prize for spectacular wrongness: 26 utterly false predictions.

    6:22 PM - 31 Mar 2018
    • 77 Retweets
    • 310 Likes
    • Edgar David Jeff Halmos Clark Neily dblight Thierry Ways Steve Sailer Jim Duncanson Aokoi Noel Russell
    19 replies 77 retweets 310 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Bob Monsen‏ @romons Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Conservatism needs fear to propagate.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Fauxmaha‏ @J3ffMiller Mar 31
        Replying to @romons @sapinker

        All politics is that way. Convince people there are monsters under their beds, then offer them protection in exchange for power.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      4. Bob Monsen‏ @romons Mar 31
        Replying to @J3ffMiller @sapinker

        Obama didn't do this in either of his campaigns. He pointed out that hope and optimism were better than fear. Fear makes people fight. It makes things worse, always. Hope may sometimes lose battles to fear, but it always wins in the end.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Fauxmaha‏ @J3ffMiller Mar 31
        Replying to @romons @sapinker

        Our politics has devolved into offering protection from the "Repulsive Cultural Other". The methods and techniques vary, but the core remains.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. EtherDoc‏ @ether_doc Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Doomsday predictions have a remarkably bad track record.

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Péng Dawei  🇵🇸‏ @elementary_peng Apr 1
        Replying to @ether_doc @sapinker

        Péng Dawei  🇵🇸 Retweeted EtherDoc

        Survivor Biashttps://twitter.com/ether_doc/status/980257486430142464 …

        Péng Dawei  🇵🇸 added,

        EtherDoc @ether_doc
        Replying to @sapinker
        Doomsday predictions have a remarkably bad track record.
        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Fauxmaha‏ @J3ffMiller Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Michael Crichton used to advise going to the library and reading 100 y/o newspapers. Compare past concerns to subsequent events. 99% don't pan out. The world is vastly more complex and resilient than we give credit for by our fears.

        3 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
      3. Robert E. Juliano  🔮 🎃 🍫 👻‏ @julianorobertrj Mar 31
        Replying to @J3ffMiller @sapinker

        True, but there are a few special individuals who have a talent for understanding the writing on the wall.https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/many-futuristic-predictions-hg-wells-came-true-180960546/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. David j‏ @David_Jorgonson Mar 31
        Replying to @julianorobertrj @J3ffMiller @sapinker

        HG Wells also wrote about Martian invasions and time machines. Where's my time machine?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robert E. Juliano  🔮 🎃 🍫 👻‏ @julianorobertrj Mar 31
        Replying to @David_Jorgonson @J3ffMiller @sapinker

        If you read the article, you would have seen that there were predictions that have not (yet) come true. And just because someone is said to have had a talent for reading the world as it is and then making accurate predictions does not in any way imply a 100% track record.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Wade Henry‏ @Nine_Hills Mar 31
        Replying to @julianorobertrj @David_Jorgonson and

        Nearly impossible to get people to notice trends that go beyond an election cycle.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Robert E. Juliano  🔮 🎃 🍫 👻‏ @julianorobertrj Mar 31
        Replying to @Nine_Hills @David_Jorgonson and

        I agree. It's a shame, too! I'm old enough to remember how the Alvin Tofflers of this world were widely respected.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      8. End of conversation
      1. Jon Finkel‏ @Jonnymagic00 Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Wasn't Ehrlich wrong only because of the time frame? Weren't there years not that far out where he would have won by a landslide?

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Chāgmé‏ @chagmed Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Give it time, give it time

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. End of conversation
      1. Ricardo Valesquez‏ @KanyeTheLobster Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        The section on the changing nature of war was good.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Toni‏ @Scatch_Mahoney Apr 1
        Replying to @sapinker

        Making doomsday predictions is kinda stupid. If you’re wrong, everyone will know. If you’re right, odds are your head will be on a pike.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Marcus Tullius‏ @pavo_burel Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Prediction essays and books are always like that.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. John Medamana‏ @JohnMedamana Mar 31
        Replying to @sapinker

        Never make sweeping predictions when there is a civil war.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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