Conservatism needs fear to propagate.
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All politics is that way. Convince people there are monsters under their beds, then offer them protection in exchange for power.
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Obama didn't do this in either of his campaigns. He pointed out that hope and optimism were better than fear. Fear makes people fight. It makes things worse, always. Hope may sometimes lose battles to fear, but it always wins in the end.
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Our politics has devolved into offering protection from the "Repulsive Cultural Other". The methods and techniques vary, but the core remains.
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Doomsday predictions have a remarkably bad track record.
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Michael Crichton used to advise going to the library and reading 100 y/o newspapers. Compare past concerns to subsequent events. 99% don't pan out. The world is vastly more complex and resilient than we give credit for by our fears.
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True, but there are a few special individuals who have a talent for understanding the writing on the wall.https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/many-futuristic-predictions-hg-wells-came-true-180960546/ …
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HG Wells also wrote about Martian invasions and time machines. Where's my time machine?
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If you read the article, you would have seen that there were predictions that have not (yet) come true. And just because someone is said to have had a talent for reading the world as it is and then making accurate predictions does not in any way imply a 100% track record.
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Nearly impossible to get people to notice trends that go beyond an election cycle.
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I agree. It's a shame, too! I'm old enough to remember how the Alvin Tofflers of this world were widely respected.
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Wasn't Ehrlich wrong only because of the time frame? Weren't there years not that far out where he would have won by a landslide?
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The section on the changing nature of war was good.
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Making doomsday predictions is kinda stupid. If you’re wrong, everyone will know. If you’re right, odds are your head will be on a pike.
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Prediction essays and books are always like that.
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Never make sweeping predictions when there is a civil war.
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