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sapinker's profile
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Verified account
@sapinker

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Steven PinkerVerified account

@sapinker

Cognitive scientist at Harvard.

Boston, MA
pinker.wjh.harvard.edu
Joined January 2010

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    Steven Pinker‏Verified account @sapinker 31 Mar 2017

    If I predict "The next card will probably (.75) not be a spade," & it's a spade, that doesn't make me wrong.http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/03/nate-silver-says-conventional-wisdom-not-data-killed-2016-election-forecasts/ …

    6:41 AM - 31 Mar 2017
    • 94 Retweets
    • 192 Likes
    • jon leslie Reebs Beorn Hari Seldon Suzy Waldman John Wonderlich David Duvenaud John Tonra Bart Crisp
    19 replies 94 retweets 192 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. TaylorHawkes‏ @TaylorHawkes 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        -it kinda does. Your prediction model is not good, maybe best at your disposal but there could always be better.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. Colin Forster‏ @colinwforster 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        That's not really a prediction because it is not falsifiable (or indeed confirmable).

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Harvard Winters‏ @HarvardWinters 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        Thank you. Thank you. This simple point is misunderstood by a lot of very smart (or at least very credentialed) people.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Chaz Mena‏ @chazmena 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        I'm still I'm still upset that I would consult his stats daily to be reassured ignoringing a growing sense of panic....

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 1 more reply
      1. "No Shit" Sherlock‏ @PunishmentHurts 18 Jun 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        been following Nate, reading him, he makes sense

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Bruce Lambert‏ @bruce_lambert 3 Apr 2017
        Replying to @sapinker

        You're not right either. It's an incomplete test.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Mac‏ @andymac2272 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @sapinker @DanCGoldberg

        Not the best analogy. The deck is always set at 52 cards. The cards drawn are visible. Both factors help you reach your percentage.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mac‏ @andymac2272 31 Mar 2017
        Replying to @andymac2272 @sapinker @DanCGoldberg

        Things are much more fluid in an election. Amount of registered voters. Sample size of polls. Response to polls. Etc

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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