@nntaleb main point is the significance of this "long" peace (ridiculously short, in fact). This short time may just means nothing, a black swan may happen anytime, possibily including nuclear weapons use, and our hability to imagine it decreases precisely with peace duration.
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I really don’t see how this proves anything.
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Government data is well known to be based on "loaded surveys and questions" that subtly change the conditions of success. How confident are you that these numbers reflect real advancements? Sorry, I'm Canadian and far too familiar with government changing data to suit politics
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I fear the Long Peace may eventually be looked back upon as a statistical aberration. I do hope it becomes the Longer Peace before that happens, but I'm not so sanguine about it.
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What would you see if you divided the death counts by population at risk of death from the war (warring parties)? Or, what happens if you standardise the rates using something like SEGI world population? I must read your paper, my comment is based on the graphs you posted.
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Doesn't that really, statistically, mostly effect those on the bottom of the hierarchy?
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And the menace of a nuclear war has nothing to do with that?
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I have commented on Michael Spagat's paper asking if the statistical approach is properly applicable, and questioning if other causal factors (e.g. globalisation) need to be considered in projecting future developments.
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Compare this 2markets & the business cycle. The bust is as essential as the boom, &look what happens when boom is artificially drawn out...a much bigger bust. There's no mystery to this. War is coming cos the peace was so utterly fabricated &unnatural. Everything finds fair value
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Depends. Are wars like volcanic eruptions?
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1900-2000 was the most violent century in history, and there's probably another crusade brewing to start this one off
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The difference between 1945 and 1950 is probably the last phase of the Chinese civil war. Since that war started in the 1920s and simply dragged on it may reflect conditions in the 1920s and 30s more than reflecting conditions in the 1940s.
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aren't you a weirdo race science / skull shape guy?
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