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sapinker's profile
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Steven Pinker
Verified account
@sapinker

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Steven PinkerVerified account

@sapinker

Cognitive scientist at Harvard.

Boston, MA
pinker.wjh.harvard.edu
Joined January 2010

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    Steven Pinker‏Verified account @sapinker Aug 13

    Is the Long Peace since mid-20th century (no great-power wars, fall in deaths from >20/100k to <2/100k) statistically significant? Some tests fail to reject null hypothesis, but quant Michael Spagat shows 1950 really is a break point. https://mikespagat.wordpress.com/2018/08/10/a-new-entry-into-the-decline-of-war-debate-yes-there-has-been-a-decline/ … via @wordpressdotcom

    12:50 PM - 13 Aug 2018
    • 25 Retweets
    • 76 Likes
    • Geoff D TREMEL эдуардо Giovanni Hernández @ndi3dg Daniel Molnar Martin Loetzsch South African Secular Society Angelo Almeida Chase
    14 replies 25 retweets 76 likes
      1. Fabien Abraini‏ @Fabiensapiens Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        @nntaleb main point is the significance of this "long" peace (ridiculously short, in fact). This short time may just means nothing, a black swan may happen anytime, possibily including nuclear weapons use, and our hability to imagine it decreases precisely with peace duration.

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. Joe‏ @bestjobaround Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        I really don’t see how this proves anything.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Tony Mountjoy‏ @VerbotenPublish Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        Government data is well known to be based on "loaded surveys and questions" that subtly change the conditions of success. How confident are you that these numbers reflect real advancements? Sorry, I'm Canadian and far too familiar with government changing data to suit politics

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      1. The 'Bone Saw Babe' Yukster  🇯🇵  🇺🇸‏ @SetagayaGirl Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        I fear the Long Peace may eventually be looked back upon as a statistical aberration. I do hope it becomes the Longer Peace before that happens, but I'm not so sanguine about it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Arin Basu‏ @arinbasu Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        What would you see if you divided the death counts by population at risk of death from the war (warring parties)? Or, what happens if you standardise the rates using something like SEGI world population? I must read your paper, my comment is based on the graphs you posted.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. youropinionisbad‏ @TruthHateStudy Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        Doesn't that really, statistically, mostly effect those on the bottom of the hierarchy?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. aries snake‏ @ariesnake Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        And the menace of a nuclear war has nothing to do with that?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Graeme Couch‏ @cmplxty Aug 14
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        I have commented on Michael Spagat's paper asking if the statistical approach is properly applicable, and questioning if other causal factors (e.g. globalisation) need to be considered in projecting future developments.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. John O'Neill‏ @SexBanJohn Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        Compare this 2markets & the business cycle. The bust is as essential as the boom, &look what happens when boom is artificially drawn out...a much bigger bust. There's no mystery to this. War is coming cos the peace was so utterly fabricated &unnatural. Everything finds fair value

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Mark H‏ @MarkHeytch Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        Depends. Are wars like volcanic eruptions?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Random Saxon‏ @thrivalistguid1 Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        1900-2000 was the most violent century in history, and there's probably another crusade brewing to start this one off

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Joe Smith  🇨🇦‏ @joesmith323 Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        The difference between 1945 and 1950 is probably the last phase of the Chinese civil war. Since that war started in the 1920s and simply dragged on it may reflect conditions in the 1920s and 30s more than reflecting conditions in the 1940s.

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      1. KentuckyFriedComrade‏ @KY_FriedComrade Aug 13
        Replying to @sapinker @wordpressdotcom

        aren't you a weirdo race science / skull shape guy?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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