Yup, that study found that the city's 1.5 cent/oz soda tax cut sweetened beverage sales by 38%, a huge reduction.https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2733208 …
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The measured reductions in Philly are way bigger than what earlier research on soda taxes in Berkeley, Caifornia, and Mexico have shown. But there are some features that could explain the difference.
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Philadelphia is a poorer city with more soda consumption than Berkeley. Its tax is also bigger.
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The researchers didn't find an increase in drinks, like bottled water, that were not subject to the tax. That's also different from the research from other cities.
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The researchers also looked at neighboring towns in PA, to see if people were just buying their sugary drinks outside of city limits. Some were, but the topline 38% drop accounts for that leakage. (They could be missing some soda shopping in NJ, but there are tolls.)
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The study was also limited to larger chain stores, so it omitted the smaller corner stores, where a lot of people in Philadelphia buy beverages. Research on those stores is also underway.
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But despite those limitations, the size of this result is pretty huge. It makes beverage taxes look potentially more consequential than earlier research did.
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Of course, it's possible Philadelphia consumers are drinking less soda, but eating more cookies or otherwise finding the same calories somewhere else. It will take longer to know whether these reductions mean public health improvements.
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An interesting irony: Philly's mayor, Jim Kenney, sold the soda tax as a revenue-raiser, but underplayed its public health effects.https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/upshot/making-a-soda-tax-more-politically-palatable.html …
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But, in practice, it looks like the tax has cut sales enough that it has underperformed on expected revenues at the same time it may have overperformed expectations for health effects.
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The tax is a live issue in Philly politics. Read this
@LMcCrystal piece on the view from Philly. https://www.philly.com/news/soda-tax-study-sales-consumption-research-20190514.html …pic.twitter.com/zmAVSHr6bF
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And, because I have done quite a lot of reporting on soda in Philadelphia, please also read my piece about how soda consumption was already declining everywhere, even before the tax. (This study addressed that, but it's an important long-term trend.)https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/upshot/soda-industry-struggles-as-consumer-tastes-change.html …
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