Conversation

Smerity
@Smerity
Q to Elon: How do we convince society as a whole that AI will be better, convince them to give trust, when statistics and intuition can be at odds.
@elonmusk
thinks over time statistics will win out - even anecdotally / occasional video evidence to overwhelm negative anecdotes.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@elonmusk
says that of the tragic failure cases in the past, they had extensive investigations (internal + govt) to analyze + show it wasn't an obvious fault of Tesla. He notes there will be many continued battles going forward however.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re what AGI will look like to arrive -
@karpathy
and
@elonmusk
both claim it will be the jump that catches us. Extreme sub human behaviour to super human with no long duration "near" human level. It won't work until it really does.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Continued Q re AGI - Exponentials seem to continue until they don't want hardware hitting limits (Moore's) far before requirements of human brain. Jim disagrees, that he has seen this fear in the past, but that the sheer force of humanity's progress keeps pushing hw forward.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Technology has continually been predicted to stop moving forward but that Jim plans to ignore that the rest of his life as it hasn't been true so far.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re adversarial protection on Tesla vehicles. Stop signs on a short.
@elonmusk
says stop signs are fine - they'll be geocoded - and that the real issue will be "bullying" of AI cars. You'll always be able to cut off a self driving car as it won't fight a human on that.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@karpathy
notes simpler adversarial issues exist - highly reflective back of trucks, roads painted on walls (Wile E Coyote!) - that much of life will provide inadvertent adversarial problems to deal with.
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Smerity
@Smerity
Q re ethics: Military AI will be a fearful fight when nation states decide that AI is a competitive capability for warfare.
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Smerity
@Smerity
@RichardSocher
asks whether self driving cars will have unintended societal consequences - urban sprawl, ... Also questions whether progress in public transportation would be better.
@elonmusk
states that no one wants better public transportation if they can get personal cars.
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