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sama's profile
Sam Altman
Sam Altman
Sam Altman
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@sama

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Sam AltmanVerified account

@sama

@OpenAI

SF
blog.samaltman.com
Joined July 2006

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    Sam Altman‏Verified account @sama 5 Jan 2019

    Speaking of predictions, I made this bet almost four years ago: https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk  With one year to go, portfolios 2 and 3 currently satisfy the condition, and portfolio 1 is probably close.

    8:22 AM - 5 Jan 2019
    • 52 Retweets
    • 503 Likes
    • Gg Shane (Techstars '21) Silicon Valley Briefly Sunny Spirit Of Love Eric Schmidt 🌐🗽 Liberal Mübarek Alex Sicart Ramos Malinga Fernando
    14 replies 52 retweets 503 likes
      1. Sam Altman‏Verified account @sama 5 Jan 2019

        Remarkable to me how many of the people who thought we were for sure in a bubble then think we definitely aren't now.

        10 replies 15 retweets 150 likes
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      2. Paal Kristian Minne‏ @pkminne 6 Jan 2019

        If the collapse had taken place earlier (2016/2017) there would have been more time for the economy to recover along with the valuation of these companies. Pretty sure he didn't predict a collapse.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ross Simmonds‏Verified account @TheCoolestCool 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        Did anyone take the bet?

        1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
      3. Bitcoin Cams‏ @bitcoincams 6 Jan 2019
        Replying to @TheCoolestCool @sama

        Same question here too "The loser donates $100,000 to a charity of the winner’s choice."

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. rjm‏ @fakeryanmills 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        Wow Prop 2 is impressive

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Firas Durri‏ @firasd 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        I think the problem in 2015 was all the “Uber for X” startups (food delivery etc.) So there was a bubble in that category, which has since popped.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Ran Reichman‏ @ranreichman 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        How does 3 satisfy the condition? Anything big except for Gitlab?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Stephan Shahinian‏ @StephanGlobal 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        Well done!!! The few times I have heard you speak it was apparent that you capture things differently... I also enjoy predicting the future and am really good at it! Mostly public markets disruptive tech/consumer but all of it. I can predict many macro phenomena if I spend time

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Tito Costa‏ @tito 5 Jan 2019
        Replying to @sama

        Ominous second last paragraph

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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