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Sam
@sam_a_bell
muddling through
Washington, DCJoined July 2009
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Can’t even take a holiday twitter break without ’s tweets being shoved in your face by
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This holiday season I'm particularly in awe of my fiancée — who *donated one of her kidneys* a few weeks ago! Thanks to her (and the organ she nicknamed "Kit") a three-year-old boy is now living dialysis-free for the first time in his entire life.
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The core PCE index rose 3.6% in November on an annualized basis over the previous three months.
That is the smallest rise in 3-month core PCE inflation since February 2021 wsj.com/articles/consu
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replaying the hits!
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Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers
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it was more fun when only was doing Tv hits about dorky twitter debates re alternative data releases
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A new Philadelphia Fed report has fueled a Tucker Carlson conspiracy. Here's what the report says and what it means marketwatch.com/story/a-new-ph
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ending the private control of the reserve banks has been a longstanding D goal
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Seems sensible. Dems should think about taking the deal.
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“[T]he bill makes the presidents of Fed regional banks presidentially-appointed” and “reduces the number of Fed regional banks from twelve to five.”(h/t @sam_a_bell) banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minor
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Fascinating. GOP has flipped from “give the reserve banks more power” post- GFC to “rein in the reserve banks” … despite america finally getting the high inflation and a D POTUS! banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minor
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Interesting. We find the opposite using IRS tax records. After declining in 2020, low-earners saw improvements in 2021 while the top quintile saw declines. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf
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NEW: Wages rose fastest for the top 1% and 0.1% of earners in 2021, while the bottom 90% took a pay cut.
Inequality has skyrocketed over the past 40 years. This growing inequality isn’t inevitable—it is a result of policy choices to reduce worker power. epi.org/publication/in
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McConnell says he's "absolutely" willing to use NRSC/SLF whatever resources to defend Romney
“It’s important for the Republican Party and the country that he runs again," McConnell says.
NRSC chair Daines also wants him to run. Not everyone will back him: Lee will stay neutral
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As bioengineering capabilities continue to advance, says that it will be critical to ensure biosecurity safeguards keep up. She argues that “the world is nowhere near establishing strong enough guardrails”
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Basically, as we scale up language models, the LLMs try really hard to model whatever is emitting the tokens they're being asked to look at. In a very real sense, the more complex LLMs get, the more they 'look at you' and predict what might satisfy you.
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via : the number of people who searched for a job (in the last four weeks) and the amount of job offers for those seeking jobs (over the last four months) both back down to 2020-levels libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/12/sce-la
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we live in an age of Homeric feats
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Japan has unveiled a $320bn plan that will buy missiles capable of striking China, readying it for sustained conflict.
The sweeping 5yr plan, once unthinkable in pacifist Japan, will make it the world's 3rd biggest military spender after the US and China.
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My colleague and I wrote a quick post highlighting why today's DOE announcement is a positive first step, and what further steps the DOE should be taking form here to refill the SPR, thereby stabilizing the trajectory of prices and supply
employamerica.org/blog/the-does-
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An encouraging first step from the White House and the Department of Energy today. Oil is near the President's committed price range for tactical purchases ($67-72).
Today's pilot purchase of 3mm barrels puts the DOE on the road to operational readiness: spr.doe.gov/posting/PURCHA
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An encouraging first step from the White House and the Department of Energy today. Oil is near the President's committed price range for tactical purchases ($67-72).
Today's pilot purchase of 3mm barrels puts the DOE on the road to operational readiness: spr.doe.gov/posting/PURCHA
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And we finally have an OFFICIAL press release link!
"Today’s notice will pilot this new approach by starting with a purchase of up to 3 million barrels of crude oil."
energy.gov/articles/doe-a
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The number of times I’ve heard some version of “I am presenting because my coauthor had visa problems” —
Countless at . These restrictions are limiting scientific progress.
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The details of the New York Empire Manufacturing Survey were much better than the headline. Employment rose to 14.0, the best since July while shipments stood in expansion territory. Capital spending intentions rose to +23.4, highest since June.
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"we've raised rates a bunch, things are headed in the right direction but we really have no idea what's going to happen, so we want to maintain uncertainty in markets to buy us time while making sure you all dont start posting rocket emojis again"
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interesting how aligned the FOMC is... dots bunched together for 2023... doesn't look like significant disagreements within the committee
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Powell today:
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WSJ poll favs/unfavs:
Biden 43/54
Trump 36/59
DeSantis 43/39 (82% name ID)
Harris 35/55
Pence 30/54
The Fed 36/40
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saved you an hour. you're welcome.
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Powell today:
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"The basic problem is that the prices of services other than energy and shelter are still rising relatively quickly. Sit-down restaurant prices were 0.44% higher in November than in October...translate to yearly restaurant inflation of roughly 5.4%"
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New at THE OVERSHOOT:
U.S. Inflation Reprieve?
theovershoot.co/p/us-inflation
<-- Prices overall rose at the slowest pace since the inflation spike began, even with soaring housing costs. Will it continue?
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tfw you realize you are the old guy in the 🏀 run 😔 ⏳ 👴
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One of the speakers (lightly paraphrased):
"I'm on disability, and I am only allowed to have $2,000 in savings. Every week when I get my paycheck I need make sure I don't have any money first."
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Disabled people are being hired more often and making more money in the U.S.'s tight labor market. Did Covid prove that remote work was possible after all? @bencasselman discusses with Nora Genster of @nwcenter, Mason Ameri of @RutgersBSchool and others. nyti.ms/3UPAFbm
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Capital Economics: 'Stick a fork in it, inflation is done'
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Some reasons to be skeptical of the jump in AHE in Nov, but I don't think the drop in hours is a good one. 🧵
The index of aggregate weekly hours (IAWH) fell by -0.2%, same as in Jan, and AHE rose by 0.55%. So, the idea is that if hours fell, then the AHE reading is biased up.
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