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White voters without a college degree ...voted Romney 61-36% in ‘12. ...voted Trump 66-29% in ‘16. ...voted Republican 61-37% in ‘18. That any Democrat could make meaningful gains with this group in 2020 is an arbitrary assumption that requires serious evaluation.
Meanwhile, 100 million eligible voters didn’t turn out in 2016 (disproportionately non-white/young i.e. Dem-leaning) and college-educated whites are suddenly Democrat-curious. There are paths to a Trump defeat that don’t require flipping white working class votes.
Seen a lot of this reply so I'll be clearer. Small swings obviously matter in a close election. My point is 1) To question whether flipping white non-college whites is more viable vs. Trump than moving white college grads and/or boosting non-white turnout. https://twitter.com/AndrewPaulJoyce/status/1173642230181040130 …
And 2) If that is the goal, worth being cautious about assumptions re: which type of Dem can move the white working class. Is it "middle class Joe" from Scranton? Is it a Sanders or Warren hyping a worker revolution? It all seems unclear at this stage and very tricky to test.
Important thread here with % of white working-class voters in key states, and this conclusion:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1173644821518585861 …
That statistic shows how immune they are to the media LWNJ bias.
Is 8 points meaningful from 2016 to 2018. I would say yes in close states
I would add that the overall percentages matter less than WHERE they get the increases. In Tennessee? Prob doesn’t matter. In Wisconsin? Hell yes, it matters.
...but given their size of the electorate the swing from ‘12 to ‘16 (and then again in ‘18) is significant
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