McConnell treads warily around debt limit fight as fears of default catastrophe grow ( / NBC News)
nbcnews.com/politics/congr
Follow
Click to Follow sahilkapur
Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur
Sahil Kapur’s Tweets
Can Democrats go around McCarthy to force a debt ceiling vote? It’s possible, but will require a handful of Republicans to go along with the plan.
House Dems are preparing a rare tool called a "discharge petition." Here's how that works:
nbcnews.com/politics/congr w/
2
8
21
Can Democrats go around McCarthy to force a debt ceiling vote? It’s possible
House Dems are wielding a rarely used tool known as a "discharge petition" to go around McCarthy on a simple debt limit extension.
What to know:
w/ 👇
19
37
Dave Min, the Democratic House candidate in CA49, says he was "cited for a misdemeanor for driving under the influence" last night. He's a state senator running with the endorsement of Rep. Katie Porter for the competitive Orange County seat she's vacating.
11
24
46
Show this thread
There's not a secret McConnell-to-the-rescue plan on the debt limit, reports .
He is refusing to get involved, instead putting the onus on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden to resolve it.
nbcnews.com/politics/congr via
5
4
6
. is launching a pop-up newsletter on the debt ceiling: X-Date. Me,, & a rotating cast of characters will bring you the latest news/analysis every weekday on the crisis.
Today, Ryan explains how Dems never took the threat seriously:
4
13
46
Show this thread
Complicated incentives for McConnell. He feels duty-bound to back GOP wishes and support McCarthy's positioning. He's aware of how R base perceives him. BUT: McCarthy's bill rolls back the gov funding deal McConnell recently struck. And MM is anti-default.
2
12
Show this thread
McConnell allies are debunking conspiracy theories of side deal. GOP leadership aide: "The leader is trying to disabuse people of the notion that there’s some sort of secret McConnell plan. He’s working to keep the conference united behind McCarthy’s plan"
2
9
Show this thread
“The president and the speaker need to reach an agreement to get us past this impasse. That’s my message going down to the White House meeting,” McConnell told reporters. “It’ll be my message in the White House meeting.”
1
12
Show this thread
Texas Senate will be one to watch in 2024. Republicans have the edge but purple trend plus Cruz’s unpopularity could make it interesting.
It’s the best (only?) pickup opportunity for Dems on a very tough map.
The other one is red-trending Florida, where Ds have self-destructed.
7
9
45
Show this thread
And he’s signaled he’ll push this decision right up to the filing deadline, which is January 2024. Democrats have nobody else; either Manchin runs or they may as well write off WV.
Quote Tweet
Manchin also hasn't even said whether he's running for reelection twitter.com/burgessev/stat…
10
12
34
NEW: McConnell treads warily around debt limit fight as fears of default catastrophe grow
He has a knack for finding a way out of Hill logjams. Some want him to get involved. But he insists he won’t.
Why?
It’s a complicated (& somewhat awkward) dynamic.
5
17
54
Show this thread
Rep. Colin Allred (D) launches his campaign for Texas Senate against Ted Cruz (R). January 6 and Cancun make an appearance in this video.
Quote Tweet
I’m running for U.S. Senate because Texans deserve a Senator whose team is Texas. Ted Cruz only cares about himself.
Join our campaign today: colinallred.com
Show this thread
3:11
2.1M views
4
65
225
Show this thread
GIF
Quote Tweet
WELLS FARGO CEO SAYS US DEFAULT WOULD BE A GIGANTIC PROBLEM
4
10
126
So House Dems planted a bill in committee that effectively skips this 30-day wait for discharge petition. Clock starts today on a 7-day rule; then on May 16 they can start collecting sigs. IF they get 218, it goes on the calendar; then another 7 leg days to ripen. Then a vote.
3
13
36
Show this thread
. says he will attend the White House meeting on May 9 and reiterate his position that Biden and McCarthy need to work out a debt ceiling solution.
7
9
12
Schumer won’t say whether Biden can use the 14th Amendment to supersede or ignore the debt limit. He says Congress should act. “The way to go is a clean debt ceiling extension and that’s the direction we want to go in.”
4
13
Show this thread
. doesn’t say whether he’ll schedule votes on his clean debt limit measure or the House-passed GOP bill. “We’re gonna wait till our meeting on the 9th and then we’ll make our determination.”
3
4
15
Show this thread
By the way, a discharge petition takes 37 days to ripen before reaching the floor. If the default deadline really is June 1, it might already be too late.
Quote Tweet
Hurdles to using a "discharge petition" to raise the debt ceiling: 30 legislative days in committee, 218 signatures in the House, another 7 legislative days on the floor, then 2 more to require the Speaker to vote. It can't initiate in the Senate. And Senate must pass it as is.
9
11
40
Show this thread
This is one problem with punting debt limit to line it up with the approps deadline. It’s not clear Congress can prohibit extraordinary measures beyond the date specified in the bill, which makes it hard to time.
Quote Tweet
FWIW, on this short-term idea - when we did a "three month" debt limit hike in 2013 (No Budget No Pay!), it ended up becoming eight months after extraordinary measures.
4
3
13
. tells me Democrats’ clean debt limit extension through 12/31/2024 “has no prayer.”
Bad sign for its prospects.
Any bill needs 60 votes to break a filibuster; he’s usually a necessary GOP vote in such coalitions.
22
14
25
In his Senate floor speech, McConnell speaks about the Supreme Court, Russia/Ukraine and foreign affairs. He wraps without mentioning the debt ceiling.
1
3
22
Show this thread
McConnell dismisses critics of SCOTUS, saying they "want the American people to gasp in horror—in horror—that one Supreme Court justice vacations with his friends, that another one sold his house when he moved, and that Chief Justice Roberts' wife has a career outside the home."
51
32
64
Show this thread
Chuck Schumer on the Senate floor:
—Insists on a clean debt limit bill
—Says the Dem "position remains the same"
—Trashes House-passed bill as "Default On America Act"
—Says budget policy negotiations belong in approps, not in "a default crisis that now stares us in the face"
1
11
59
Show this thread
. is now digging in on his demand for "a clean bipartisan bill to avert default."
"McCarthy is giving us two terrible options: Either default on the debt or default on our country with steep, severe ,devastating cuts to things like law enforcement, families, teachers"
8
37
132
Show this thread
CBO: “we now estimate that there is a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June.”
This backs up Yellen’s analysis.
CBO had previously projected July-September, so it’s another data point showing the crunch is real.
1
23
36
New: has accepted 's invitation to a debt ceiling meeting on May 9.
is teeing up Senate votes on a new proposal to suspend the limit through Dec. 31, 2024.
He also calendar'd House GOP bill for a possible vote.
13
65
139
Television and movie writers declared that they will launch a strike for the first time in 15 years, as Hollywood girded for a walkout with potentially widespread ramifications in a fight over fair pay in the streaming era.
55
234
465
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, is set to challenge U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, for reelection in 2024 and could announce his campaign within days.
The former NFL player and civil rights lawyer has been a rising Democratic star in Congress.
515
2,462
11.3K
No Youngkin 2024, which got a ton of speculation. Prob helped that Youngkin's 2021 campaign was the only one, since 2014, that pleased every faction of the party and looked repeatable at scale.
40
76
247
Show this thread
Schumer is teeing up Senate votes on a clean debt limit extension AND the House-passed GOP bill to impose discretionary spending cuts and caps. At this moment neither of the two bills has the 60 votes needed to assure passage. No existing bill does. Deadline is as soon as June 1.
Quote Tweet
The Senate began the Rule 14 process to place the following bills on the Legislative Calendar of Business:
1. S.1395, to temporarily suspend the debt limit through December 31, 2024.
2. H.R.2811 Limit, Save, Grow Act
1
6
30
NEW: President Biden invites top congressional leaders to debt ceiling meeting…
…as Treasury warns that the U.S. could be as little as 31 days from a self-imposed economic meltdown.
w/ :
4
31
52
The last time the debt limit deadline came up, facilitated a way for Democrats to resolve it without the threat of default. Here’s what he told me about it a few months ago, in December. nbcnews.com/politics/congr
2
12
27
There are now 31 calendar days until the US could breach the debt limit.
In legislative days, it’s worse:
The Senate is in for 15.
The House is in for 12.
There is no debt limit bill that has anywhere close to enough support on Capitol Hill to pass.
6
22
42
Show this thread
Huge news: says the X date to raise the debt limit or risk a catastrophic US default is "potentially as early as June 1."
That’s sooner than her earlier June 5 cutoff.
Yellen stresses uncertainty, says it "could be a number of weeks later."
29
117
290
Show this thread
Three potential paths to raising the debt limit — and why each one of them is murky.
DOOR #1: Biden and McCarthy negotiate a deal
DOOR #2: Clean debt limit increase
DOOR #3: Pair debt limit with approps
Clock is ticking.
Still unclear how this crisis gets resolved.
2:09
2.4K views
11
9
22
But the House GOP bill doesn't specify which items they'd cut. So the White House and Democrats are essentially filling in the blanks by highlighting the popular items on the chopping block if the bill's cuts and caps take effect — an attempt to scare politically vulnerable Rs.
1
6
15
Show this thread
To boil this down, non-military discretionary spending is ~15% of the US budget. That's the slice Republicans say they want to cut (the rest is predominantly Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the military).
Here is what's in that slice, per CBO:
cbo.gov/budget-options
2
11
24
Show this thread