1/n One of @gwern's best essays ever is a review of a book nobody has ever heard of.
It's about looking into the future, seeing exactly what awaits us, and being unable to capitalize on this knowledge, because you only know *what* will be and not *when* it will be.
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2/n "one quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, but X was off by a few years & jumped the gun & so Z was the person who wound up taking all the spoils."pic.twitter.com/ze2ZMAikBU
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3/n "A good idea will draw overly-optimistic entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant."pic.twitter.com/5oLaX8nxh3
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Funny that the author apparently knows about Paypal but seems to have missed that several of its creators have proven that luck is very repeatable for them...
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