yes, definitely possible and probably happening in some cases, I’d guess. Buuut from what I’ve seen it isn’t actually clear that the trajectory of measured viral load differs much at all between severe and non-severe cases... [citation pending]
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Replying to @LucreSnooker @s_r_constantin
Lucre Snooker Retweeted Lucre Snooker
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Replying to @LucreSnooker @s_r_constantin
another one from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042382v1.full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/U9JaqMZAV5
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Replying to @LucreSnooker
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2.pdf … points to severe COVID-19 having higher viral load (also from nasopharyngeal swabs)
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
oh yeah, i remember that one. don't know offhand how to explain the difference. an italian paper also says there's no clear difference in viral load btw symptomatic vs. asymptomatic https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf …pic.twitter.com/EH039clUxn
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Replying to @LucreSnooker @s_r_constantin
and another one before i forget (too many damn papers!) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920301961#fig2 …pic.twitter.com/OL0dxPAVJk
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Replying to @LucreSnooker
ok, now I'm convinced; that's enough negative results that it's probably not a thing. (also we know there are asymptomatic people with high viral titers.)
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @LucreSnooker
that sounds like bad news for variolation, right? (it may not even be possible to get mild disease by giving low doses of virus?)
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
yeah, to me it's quite murky. i've seen some evidence of a dose/response-ish relationship in formation of immune memory, e.g. if you don't have a high enough infectious dose then memory CD8+ T cells don't form (virus gets cleared too quickly). it seems plausible that...
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Replying to @LucreSnooker @s_r_constantin
at some low-ish infectious dose you get "good enough" protection from reinfection/severe disease without taking 100% of the danger of a "typical" infectious dose. but can you cut mortality by 10x and still get "good enough" protection? i think i'd guess no
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yeah that's the big question that's unanswered.
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