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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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      Jason Crawford Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

      Please stop using per-capita data to show that large countries have low numbers. It's like evaluating a forest fire by the % of trees burned. If the outbreak is still growing, all that tells you is how far it has to go and how much destruction it can still wreak.https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1249480343968575488 …

      Jason Crawford added,

      Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
      This worse-than-useless #COVID19 graph is making the rounds. The problem with it is in the early stages, epidemics spread at the same rate irrespective of country size. When you divide by population, you create a misleading illusion of lower R0 in bigger countries. https://twitter.com/edrennie77/status/1249028359855759361 …
      Show this thread
      7 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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      To be clear, per-capita information is a useful metric in the right context. I'm not saying you should never look at it or that it's meaningless. I'm arguing against using per-capita numbers to argue that, e.g., the US outbreak is not bad compared to other countries.

      4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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      If an outbreak has stopped, then low per-capita numbers are good: it means the outbreak didn't spread far, on a relative basis. If an outbreak is still growing, low per-capita numbers just mean that it's early, and there is still a lot farther for it to go.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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      An epidemic stops either because it is forcibly stopped, with vaccines, treatments, or other control measures; or because it burns through the population and eventually most people still alive have immunity. Low per-capita cases mean that many susceptible people remain.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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      Again, if the outbreak has been forcibly stopped, then this is good! That means we got to it and stopped it early. But if not, there is no reason for relief. Many people are still at risk.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 13
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      Replying to @jasoncrawford

      It depends whether “it’s not as bad in the US as some other countries” is being used to argue “therefore Americans should worry less about risk” (bad!) or “therefore the US response to COVID19 was not uniquely bad among countries”, which I actually think is true?

      9:38 AM - 13 Apr 2020
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      • Michael Keenan Anurag Kashyap Jason Crawford
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 13
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin

          Jason Crawford Retweeted Jason Crawford

          Yeah, not sure it's *uniquely* bad… see this:https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1249739275567894528 …

          Jason Crawford added,

          Jason Crawford @jasoncrawford
          To be very clear, this is the kind of thing I'm talking about. I very much disagree with the framing here: pic.twitter.com/gwWzmkzdjD
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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