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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      Sarah Constantin Retweeted Sarah Constantin

      I got great, consistent feedback from people who actually know finance that you cannot currently make 11% returns a year by value investing.https://twitter.com/s_r_constantin/status/1247301128980549632 …

      Sarah Constantin added,

      Sarah Constantin @s_r_constantin
      This is an apparently (?) mainstream econ paper arguing that "value investment" strategies make money because they are contrarian to "naive" strategies, i.e. "dumb money" http://lsvasset.com/pdf/research-papers/Contrarian-Investment-Extrapolation-and-Risk.pdf … .
      Show this thread
      6 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      I’m curious about testing what I might call the “cool guy” theory of investor irrationality — that people give money to whoever they perceive as cool, which is defined by who other people think is cool.

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      (If there’s a real name for this I’m not familiar with it, though it does sound like Keynes’ “beauty contest” concept.)

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      Sounds like if most money is following “cool guy” dynamics, then momentum & value premiums should be a big thing; if plenty of investors are willing to be “contrarian” then they won’t. Does that sound correct?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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    5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      Also, if “cool guy” dynamics are prevalent, we should see lots of “runs” of stocks going steadily up and then crashing, at whatever the timescale of social narrative moves at (months?). Ie they should have a preferred timescale instead of being true GBMs. Does *that* sound right?

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Apr 7
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      @TheZvi @ArtirKel @ArthurB how would you test whether the Cool Guy Theory is true?

      7:12 AM - 7 Apr 2020
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        2. Zvi Mowshowitz‏ @TheZvi Apr 7
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @ArtirKel @ArthurB

          There's doubtless some cool guy money (like anything) but also some big money willing or even looking to fade it. How to test? Find a measure of what 'cool' is, presumably.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente‏ @ArtirKel Apr 7
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          Replying to @TheZvi @s_r_constantin @ArthurB

          The other way is to assume that what is going up is cool but then that equals testing if momentum is true using the same stat test you mentioned. Coolness, if it works, would have to track more momentum than subjective coolness (e.g. Tesla isn't doing that great?)

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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