I got great, consistent feedback from people who actually know finance that you cannot currently make 11% returns a year by value investing.https://twitter.com/s_r_constantin/status/1247301128980549632 …
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Sounds like if most money is following “cool guy” dynamics, then momentum & value premiums should be a big thing; if plenty of investors are willing to be “contrarian” then they won’t. Does that sound correct?
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Also, if “cool guy” dynamics are prevalent, we should see lots of “runs” of stocks going steadily up and then crashing, at whatever the timescale of social narrative moves at (months?). Ie they should have a preferred timescale instead of being true GBMs. Does *that* sound right?
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End of conversation
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I'd guess it runs on a different mechanism: "maybe these other people know a good reason to invest in this particular thing, which reason I don't know".
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