Lockdown is expen$ive! What does it buy? (1) Flatten curve at pandemic peak, (2) Delay peak hoping for vaccine (3) Delay peak for time to expand docs, beds, ventilators, tests, apps, etc. Only (1) seems cost-effective to me, but if so, deliberate exposure would also help now.
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Replying to @robinhanson
I have a bad feeling about "lockdown is expensive", not sure if this is me being stupid or other people legitimately missing something.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson
I think -- and I believe you also think -- that a lot of the activity people are currently "locked down" and prevented from doing is neither productive nor pleasurable. "Bullshit jobs" and the like.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
Bullshit lockdown activities seem to me just as likely as outside lockdown. I don't see how lockdown itself cuts bullshit.
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Replying to @robinhanson
"essential jobs" (food, sanitation, medicine) are actually afaik the essential survival functions.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
In general, income taxes lead us to expect that there is too little work, relative to leisure. So cutting back on work makes that worse.
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Replying to @robinhanson
explain? how do income taxes make us think there is too little work?
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
I meant in the absence of other considerations to push us to expect too much or too little.
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Replying to @robinhanson @s_r_constantin
how am I supposed to read this as anything but trolling? It takes an implausible level of dissociation to see an economy of paycheck to paycheck full time laborers who were apparently non-essential to think that what we've really needed this whole time was more scarcity / work.
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Replying to @gallabytes @s_r_constantin
You think something obvious, but I disagree.
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Ok, @oscredwin unpacked the disagreement for me: it’s possible that we aren’t “fine” without all these workers during lockdown, we’re spending down some store of capital (by not doing repairs/investment) and it wouldn’t be sustainable if all these people stayed home long term.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson and
I agree that this is totally possible and I have no stats to offer.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson and
It may be a restricted population (which includes me & I’d expect to include you) whose “work” is clearly not essential labor the population can’t survive without, but whoever pays our bills doesn’t seem to mind. So, the reasoning goes, why not strip the pretense?
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