Lockdown is expen$ive! What does it buy? (1) Flatten curve at pandemic peak, (2) Delay peak hoping for vaccine (3) Delay peak for time to expand docs, beds, ventilators, tests, apps, etc. Only (1) seems cost-effective to me, but if so, deliberate exposure would also help now.
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Replying to @robinhanson
I have a bad feeling about "lockdown is expensive", not sure if this is me being stupid or other people legitimately missing something.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson
I think -- and I believe you also think -- that a lot of the activity people are currently "locked down" and prevented from doing is neither productive nor pleasurable. "Bullshit jobs" and the like.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
Bullshit lockdown activities seem to me just as likely as outside lockdown. I don't see how lockdown itself cuts bullshit.
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Replying to @robinhanson
"essential jobs" (food, sanitation, medicine) are actually afaik the essential survival functions.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
In general, income taxes lead us to expect that there is too little work, relative to leisure. So cutting back on work makes that worse.
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Replying to @robinhanson
explain? how do income taxes make us think there is too little work?
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson
Is the idea analogous to "Taxing smoking leads us (in theory) to think that there is too little smoking, because more smoking would give us more tax revenue to fund stuff that we want"?
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what? no. it's analogous to "taxing smoking leads us to think that there is too little smoking, because we presume that the amount people would smoke in the absence of any external pressure is the optimal amount."
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @robinhanson
That makes more sense. You're reading Robin as describing how we *should* infer. I was misreading him as describing how homo hypocritus would in infer.
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