Lockdown is expen$ive! What does it buy? (1) Flatten curve at pandemic peak, (2) Delay peak hoping for vaccine (3) Delay peak for time to expand docs, beds, ventilators, tests, apps, etc. Only (1) seems cost-effective to me, but if so, deliberate exposure would also help now.
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Replying to @robinhanson
I have a bad feeling about "lockdown is expensive", not sure if this is me being stupid or other people legitimately missing something.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
Bad feeling means you doubt the claim, or worried about the consequences?
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Replying to @robinhanson
I'm worried (maybe wrongly) that there are real but not money-denominated benefits to lockdown that aren't showing up in your assessment that "lockdown is costly."
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
You mean benefits beyond the 3 I explicitly listed? Less pollution? Less other disease transmission?
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Yes, see my further comments. Less effort spent on unnecessary work, "face time culture", social pressure to go out and spend money. A quarantine is an external event that makes it socially acceptable to do less wasteful stuff.
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