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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 10
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation

      Sarah Constantin Retweeted Roko Mijic

      This sounds like a legitimately hard or impossible technical problem. (Cashing out most statements into empirical claims on which one could bet.). It's difficult for humans to do; I don't think it's obvious that it *can* be automated.https://twitter.com/RokoMijicUK/status/1236360643822997505 …

      Sarah Constantin added,

      Roko Mijic @RokoMijicUK
      We can make try to make bets about carefully operationalized events like "this virus will kill 10,000,000 people as judged by the WHO by 2022" but most statements on Wikipedia are not presented in a carefully operationalized form.
      Show this thread
      4 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 10
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      You could of course have a text editor which, after each sentence, prompts you with "could you state this in the form of a bet?" and gives a standard bet format -- "by [time], we will/will-not observe [foo], conditional on [bar], as measured by [third-party source of info]"

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 10
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      for example, if you asked me to restate the past tweet in the form of an empirical prediction: "by 2022, we will not observe an automated rewriting tool like this, conditional on at least $1M of person-hours being devoted to it, as measured by a Google search for such tools"

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 10
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      Once you have a prediction, of course, you can lay odds on it, and afaik there's already adequate software for setting odds and finding someone to take the other side of bets.

      12:32 PM - 10 Mar 2020
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