This sounds like a legitimately hard or impossible technical problem. (Cashing out most statements into empirical claims on which one could bet.). It's difficult for humans to do; I don't think it's obvious that it *can* be automated.https://twitter.com/RokoMijicUK/status/1236360643822997505 …
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They were internal at a financial institution. We'd have theses for a year-ish time frame. Compile to boolean, time-bound prediction (good mental hygiene, anyway). Folks vote on P(happens). Discover differences, discuss. Use: low. Speculation: rigor is hard and tools rough
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