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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 4
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      I’ve been spending a lot of time on the road talking to @oscredwin, and I’m realizing that we have very different intuitions around speculating under uncertainty.

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
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    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 4
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      We both believe hard data over sketchy ideas, of course. But he’s more willing than me to make predictions based on economic concepts or other verbalizable models when he doesn’t know specifics, whereas that feels way too sketchy for me.

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 4
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      Conversely, I’m more willing to generalize from anecdotes and believe my “vibe” hunches about cultural zeitgeists and human psychology, and that stuff feels fake to him.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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    4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 4
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      Interestingly, we both feel *bored* by speculations that seem ungrounded, like “that’s a dead end, it can’t yield fruit, can we talk about something else now?”

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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      One big difference is that I consistently expect bigger gaps between “far-mode” stuff I learned in books and “near-mode” stuff I can observe firsthand than Andrew does.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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      On an S1 level I just *don’t expect* the sorts of things books & schools tell you to do, like take vitamins or wash your hands, to make a difference big enough to notice in your own life.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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    7. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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      Eg I was *surprised* to find out firsthand that modular code really is easier to debug, that aspirin really can relieve pain, and that “the greenhouse effect” actually does make sunny indoor rooms hot.

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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    8. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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      I think I have a default assumption that the stuff authority figures tell you is pretty likely to be false. I wasn’t “an atheist” till I was an adult but I totally did “belief in belief” as long as I could remember; I believed because I thought that was what good people did.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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      Andrew, on the other hand, doesn’t do that effortless thing of “yeah Officially X but I don’t really expect to personally rely on X.” If he believes something, he believes it “in real life”; otherwise it’s phony.

      7:36 AM - 5 Mar 2020
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      • Mark "reduce human contact now" Chimes Fork From Home Rahul Ramchandani ian hines
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        2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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          This means @oscredwin has higher intellectual integrity than me; you *shouldn’t* have separate magisteria, in principle. Everything should be consistent with everything else, in the end.

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        3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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          OTOH I think my intuition and “vibes” are *accurately pointing to stuff he can’t perceive* about how often people are bullshitting and how trustworthy authorities are. There’s probably false things that he *actually believes* that I wouldn’t outright deny but I wouldn’t bet on.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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        4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Mar 5
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          This is a pretty canonical gender difference: men (speaking roughly) are more principled and women are more sensitive to signals of incongruence/insincerity, but we don’t really know how to articulate what we perceive in ways that don’t sound super “woo” or “crazy.”

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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        5. End of conversation

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