The Stanovich etc literature on cognitive biases, last I checked, says you *can* train people to reason probabilistically (by teaching them probability and/or giving them practice making bets) but there's no known way to train people to be more self-skeptical/open-minded.
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Write down the requirements (put numbers on the task of the gadget, the env. conditions, the minimum lifetime), then hierarchically subdivide the functions. Sketch a preliminary design, make a list of parts, and a model---write down the modeling assumptions. %
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Then, basically, check if things match up. - Does every function have a part to implement it, and does every part have a function? - Do the requirements fit inside the modeling assumptions? - Do the parts fulfill the requirements (or do they e.g. get worn out in a year)?
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