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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Anders Sandberg‏ @anderssandberg Jan 23
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      Replying to @sebkrier

      I think profits are great. But what are they used for? I rather see them used for Mars, solving ageing, renewable or fixing incarceration than maximizing shareholder value.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 23
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      Replying to @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      Going to Mars, solving aging, or creating renewable energy would be hugely profitable once achieved, but investing in *developing* such technologies is rarely the most profitable use of, say, a million dollars over a five-year period.

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 23
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      I'm starting to think that R&D must be "subsidized" by something besides financial motive. Whether that's "scientists + engineers taking below-market wages or spending their own savings to build a cool thing" or "taxpayer dollars" or "investors who want the cool thing to exist".

      3 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
    4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 23
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      or "executives at large firms who want the cool thing to exist"

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 23
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      It doesn't have to be an altruistic motive -- wanting to personally go to Mars or live longer is a selfish motive! As is wanting to work on interesting problems with fun people! But it's intrinsic interest in the thing for its own sake rather than just ROI.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 23
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      In principle, the ROI on research can be spectacularly good. In practice, the point at which even the most "radical" professional investors shell out is usually long after the basic premise has been de-risked a LOT, usually in academia.

      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
    7. Sri Krishna‏ @skrish_13 Jan 24
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/samshead/2019/07/08/baroness-joanna-shields-benevolentai-is-reportedly-preparing-to-slash-its-2-billion-valuation/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 24
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      Replying to @skrish_13 @anderssandberg @sebkrier

      Not sure quite sure what you’re implying. BenevolentAI’s business model really incentivizes them to sell before they prove their basic premise (“machine learning on a text database can predict drug effectiveness well enough to improve on conventional drug discovery”).

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 24
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @skrish_13 and

      Let me make up an example of how this is an epistemic “near occasion of sin.” How do we know their knowledge graph actually predicts drug targets accurately? The easiest thing you might do is give an accuracy number: their algorithm spits out a list of targets that overlap 99%...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 24
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @skrish_13 and

      with the real known drug targets. That sounds good, right? But their dataset includes the research literature! They’re “predicting” targets *after* scientists have already discovered them! Unless their sample comes with a time cutoff.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 24
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @skrish_13 and

      I’m not saying they did a cheat like this; I would have no way of knowing. I’m saying it’s *super* easy to slip under the rug in a 10-slide deck to AstraZeneca, if there’s nobody in the room who knows statistics.

      12:48 PM - 24 Jan 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Anders Sandberg
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin Jan 24
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @skrish_13 and

          A fake AI company and a real AI company can look very similar until you do an in-depth audit *or* actually run the experiments and see if the algorithms predict *future* data better than baseline. Even then, you can do shenanigans with what the baseline is.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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