"But at least one big factor in this plan is not entirely in EQRx’s control: Someone has to buy the equivalar instead of the blockbuster it copied precisely because it is cheaper. Faith that this will happen is one of the reasons investors are backing Borisy." Hmmm...
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Why isn't it obvious that insurance companies would prefer to cover a (FDA-approved, proven-equivalent) cheap drug over an expensive drug for the same disease? Even monopolies and oligopolies have an interest in lowering their *costs*.
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This is the kind of scenario that makes me think about
@TheZvi's dictum that "people just don't like money" (he's often said this about people whose gambling or financial bets predictably lose) but I hesitate to make that judgment about an industry I don't know well.Show this thread
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Because when the drug is developed and it comes time to actually set the price, they always do expected-profit calculations and conclude that they should make it expensive, instead. Until the price is actually real, claiming to be cheaper is just puffery.
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The question is why it’s never profit maximizing to lower prices. In some industries it is!
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they're betting on less risk because they're following known development paths but I'm not confident this actually lowers risk enough
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it could! but there are plenty of examples of me-too drugs that are surprisingly different in efficacy/side effects, and those sometimes don't show up until you've blown a bunch of money on phase 3 trials
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It's been tried with competitors for the epipen. Doctors won't write the alternate brand and pharmacists aren't allowed to do the substitution.
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Epipen seems like a unique case where they got a patent on the simplest physical mechanism to inject the drug so doctors weren't willing to prescribe something more complex to administer
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