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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      Just getting reliable metal alloys, to order, to arrive at your bolt-making shop at will is insanely difficult to replicate. And then you need the tooling to keep your plant going. The machines you need for that are ludicrously expensive.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      So lets say a small city is 1M people; that's what he originally claimed. I don't think you can sustain even circa 1800 industry with that number of people.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      Like, just look at some videos from the NYC CNC channel of shop tours of modern machine tool manufacturing facilities...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XkrNBUvpGs …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. William Eden‏ @WilliamAEden 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @vgr

      Right. So then what is the minimum population size given the current economy? Presumably we have a lot of unnecessary variation that could be dispensed with in an emergency. What’s the minimum viable population size that ~maintains standard of living? Still have computers etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @WilliamAEden @vgr

      I'm going to guess that you pretty much can't have an economy like we have now without billions of people involved. Computers of the modern sort require insane precision manufacturing equipment.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      Project Apollo in the 1960s is said to have directly employed 400,000 people, and that's totally ignoring tens of millions (at least) in the supply chains upstream providing everything from T6061 Aluminum to cleaning fluid to box lunches.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      I'd guess that if you do the transitive closure of everyone involved in the production of a modern Intel microprocessor, you end up with at least a third of the world population.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      By that I mean everyone supplied something, or supplied something to a supplier or employee, or supplied something to them, and on all the way back. The web of relationships goes from farm equipment makers to plumbers and people publishing chemical phase diagrams.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      What if you were optimizing for smallness instead of efficiency? I don’t think the minimum number of people who could possibly make X is equal to the number who do in practice make X in the world today.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin @WilliamAEden @vgr

      You mention "efficiency" as though you could dispatch with it and *reduce* the number of people involved, but if you reduce it, you *increase* the number of people involved. Efficiency is why we can do it with "only" billions of people.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 5 Oct 2019
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      Replying to @perrymetzger @WilliamAEden @vgr

      I mean, the existence of subsistence farmers proves that it *is* possible to live on the food you produce yourself, just lower quantity and quality than you could get with trade.

      6:45 PM - 5 Oct 2019
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @WilliamAEden @vgr

          I think you're underestimating how badly subsistence farmers live, and how few true subsistence farmers are left. You're also underestimating how badly people used to live in general.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @perrymetzger @s_r_constantin and

          Yes, in some sense, subsistence farmers "merely" have lower quality food and less of it, but in practice, we're talking about a shocking difference in standard of living.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 5 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @perrymetzger and

          What I’m curious about is the generalization of that. How many people would it take to build a (possibly worse, less safe, etc) airplane? Or power plant?

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Perry E. Metzger‏ @perrymetzger 5 Oct 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @WilliamAEden @vgr

          Who cares about safe? You can't do it at all without modern machine tools, modern metallurgy, computers, etc. I don't think 1M people can even sustain a circa 1800 technology base.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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