In general: there’s more to business success than just revenue & user numbers. You can boost those artificially by shady tactics, in the short run. If the apparent growth is totally out of whack with what you know of the userbase and their needs, something is fishy.
But then you run into the same problem as uBiome. If you’re not measuring the levels of a specific molecule, but your own composite score, then you have to prove to the satisfaction of doctors and insurers that this score can be used to make actual medical decisions.
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I don't have a good intuition for how hard the regulatory hurdle is. But it's obvious to me that a composite score will outperform [M] for any single molecule M.
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a composite score for what?
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And that will take a very long time and a lot of money spent on research before you can actually sell this test to appreciable numbers of people.
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So in the end, maybe Theranos was regulators' fault. They made legitimate innovation so hard that people with $ and ambition found it easier to cheat instead.
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