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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      So the first question I asked is the dumb-and-obvious one: "do VC's, as a class, actually do any better than an index fund?" The answer, reassuringly, is yes; there's a lot more variance in VC returns, but in the long run early-stage VCs make about a 20% yearly return.

      4 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
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    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      (source: https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Public-USVC-Benchmark-2014-Q4.pdf …)

      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      VCs as a class have about the same internal rate of return as Berkshire Hathaway https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2018ar/2018ar.pdf …, a standard example of a very good investment firm.

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    4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      An exceptional single *company* can have a higher rate of return, though: Amazon has been growing at an average rate of 36% a year since it IPO'd. If you had to pick between being Jeff Bezos and being a typical VC, on purely money grounds, you'd want to be Bezos.

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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    5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      It's apparently possible to be a VC firm that raises large funds and underperforms; DCM Ventures is in the top 10 firms for largest funds raised and the IRRs I could find are as follows: DCM II: 0.20% DCM III: 2.1% DCM IV: 4.89% DCM V: 18.69% DCM VI: 3%

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    6. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo 7 Sep 2019
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin

      I don't like that you put investment in quotes. I think you misunderstand what a coin flip is. A straight up 0 EV coin flip is 50% you lose the coin, 50% you get the coin. If you can win an entire coin, but only lose half a coin, and the odds are equal, that's +EV.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo 7 Sep 2019
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      Replying to @patrissimo @s_r_constantin

      In other words it is a positive yielding investment. if I can either double or halve my number of fruit trees, with 50% odds, if we make that bet across 1,000 orchards on average next year we're going to have 25% more trees! This is a value-generating play, not a gamble.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo 7 Sep 2019
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      Replying to @patrissimo @s_r_constantin

      It's fundamentally different to win or lose one unit with equal probability. That's a coin flip, and that's the bet you take when martingaling. It's just when martingaling it's assumed you have a pool of capital such that you can double your bet if you lose. But it's a 0 EV bet.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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      Replying to @patrissimo

      Ok, I think I was wrong here, thanks for the correction!

      10:46 AM - 7 Sep 2019
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      • Patri Friedman
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        1. New conversation
        2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 7 Sep 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin @patrissimo

          I think the point stands that "if your mean log IRR isn't significantly larger than zero, then you can't be distinguished from a martingale, and the optimal long-run amount to invest in martingales is zero", though.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo 7 Sep 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin

          I'm not disagreeing with that point, but you have to illustrate it with a zero IRR gamble like a double or nothing coin flip. There's also a subtle but important difference between repeated 1 unit bets (opposite of +100% is -100%) & repeated bankroll bets (opp +100% is -50%).

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation

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