So the first question I asked is the dumb-and-obvious one: "do VC's, as a class, actually do any better than an index fund?" The answer, reassuringly, is yes; there's a lot more variance in VC returns, but in the long run early-stage VCs make about a 20% yearly return.
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I think the point stands that "if your mean log IRR isn't significantly larger than zero, then you can't be distinguished from a martingale, and the optimal long-run amount to invest in martingales is zero", though.
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I'm not disagreeing with that point, but you have to illustrate it with a zero IRR gamble like a double or nothing coin flip. There's also a subtle but important difference between repeated 1 unit bets (opposite of +100% is -100%) & repeated bankroll bets (opp +100% is -50%).
End of conversation
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