I'm surprised more people don't use Guesstimate; it's a VERY intuitive user interface for building hierarchical probabilistic models. Sure, Stan is more rigorous, but Guesstimate is as easy to use as a spreadsheet. https://www.getguesstimate.com
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It's especially good at building intuition for how sensitively outcomes depend (or don't) on your assumptions about input numbers. When you're making decisions on insufficient data, it helps to know how big a deal it is if your data is wrong.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
I played with it a while ago. It looks like there's still no way to download it or buy it? Subscription online versions only? It looks neat otherwise, though.
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Replying to @evanbd
there's a free plan, that's what I use.
9:36 AM - 16 Jun 2019
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