I'm surprised more people don't use Guesstimate; it's a VERY intuitive user interface for building hierarchical probabilistic models. Sure, Stan is more rigorous, but Guesstimate is as easy to use as a spreadsheet. https://www.getguesstimate.com
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I played with it a while ago. It looks like there's still no way to download it or buy it? Subscription online versions only? It looks neat otherwise, though.
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there's a free plan, that's what I use.
End of conversation
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I’d like to see guesstimate’s guesstimate re: people’s future guesstimate usage
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+1, Guesstimate is awesome! the team behind it have moved on to other things, but we're working on solving the same problem: https://causal.app — would love to hear your thoughts :)
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