You can't judge the value of a project by how smart or hardworking the people on it are. Doing a brilliant job on something inherently futile just means you're *really good* at wasting resources.
some people's definition of "smart" seems to include "occasionally looking up from your task to ask if it's futile." Is that your perspective? If so, then yeah, being "smart" means avoiding futility.
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But, e.g. in scientific fields with "math envy", I see a lot of work that demonstrates painstakingly achieved technical competence but absolutely can't lead to better understanding/control of the phenomena being studied.
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But are they successfully getting grants?
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There’s a hugely different question between people who chose the task vs didn’t.
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I also think you’re kinda conflating the expected value with the final outcome. Plenty of high ev things are gonna fail through happenstance but are still good ideas.
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