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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      I'm often in the position where I see startups with plans that *don't make sense* to me, as business models or as research programs. Sometimes brilliant people with stellar career track records join these companies. Sometimes they get highly funded. I'm puzzled.

      4 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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    2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      From my perspective, as a founder of an early-stage startup, I'm starting on the ground floor. Zero credibility. How can I earn credibility? Pretty much *only* by generating results and by having a well-thought-out plan with good evidence it can succeed.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      In a biotech context, where actual revenue may be a decade away, and where even experimental data is expensive to collect (atoms, not bits!) pretty much *all* the credibility of my project resides in the plan. Capable people, too; but recruiting them reduces to the same problem.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      In fact, the people I *have* recruited and fundraised from so far, who are excellent, were sold on the basis of the plan: why it makes sense & seems likely that we'll discover anti-aging drugs through large phenotypic invertebrate drug screens.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      So, of course, one possibility is that I'm wrong when someone's plan doesn't make sense to me.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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    6. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      I've definitely made mistakes of the form "that's not possible, the technology isn't good enough/cheap enough" based on outdated information, and it turns out things have rapidly progressed since I last checked on the field.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    7. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      But simple logic stuff like "a plan that depends on A, B, *and* C going right is riskier than a plan that depends on A, B, *or* C going right" or "experimental evidence is more credible than correlational evidence, ceterus paribus, in ascertaining whether an intervention works"

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    8. Logos‏ @speakthelogos 21 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @s_r_constantin

      Unless someone’s specific knowledge leads them to ABC being the only working path. We don’t live in a general probability set.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Logos‏ @speakthelogos 21 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @speakthelogos @s_r_constantin

      Even more importantly, business and funding plans are marketing documents. They rarely contain actual secret sauce for two reasons: 1) investors are quite dumb and don’t look at things that actually matter, and 2) lots of people will see that doc, gotta treat it as public facing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Logos‏ @speakthelogos 21 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @speakthelogos @s_r_constantin

      Most successful startups I’ve been involved with have an investor plan that contains whatever mindless platitudes investors want to see, and an actual internal plan that success hinges upon.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 22 Apr 2019
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      Replying to @speakthelogos

      This would explain why smart *founders* appear to have dumb plans: they're lying. (I honestly never thought of that!) Doesn't explain why smart investors would fund dumb-looking plans. (& you've already assumed investors are dumb, which I'm skeptical of.)

      7:34 AM - 22 Apr 2019
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        2. Logos‏ @speakthelogos 22 Apr 2019
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          Replying to @s_r_constantin

          Dumb is flippant; they optimize around the wrong things.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Logos‏ @speakthelogos 22 Apr 2019
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          Replying to @speakthelogos @s_r_constantin

          And the very tippity top investors *are* optimizing around the right things, and unsurprisingly they’re the only ones that return any capital (since 90%+ of VCs fail).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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