I'm often in the position where I see startups with plans that *don't make sense* to me, as business models or as research programs. Sometimes brilliant people with stellar career track records join these companies. Sometimes they get highly funded. I'm puzzled.
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This might make sense in a world with rapid & cheap market feedback, like consumer software. It seems *nuts* in biotech, where you're investing a lot in expensive physical equipment for something that won't pay you for ten years!
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True, if your plan is bad today, you can change it. But that means plan #2, or #3, or whatever, is going to have to actually get you from here to the big goal when nobody else yet has. And so, isn't the quality of plan #1 an indicator of how good the people are at planning?
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Do you think
@elonmusk doesn't have a plan to get to Mars? Like, not a marketing pitch, a plan that is his careful best assessment of the critical path from here to there?Show this thread
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I've found that, even among smart people, willingness and ability to do basic evaluation of long-term plans is... not quite rare, but at least uncommon. It's certainly not the default. (I'm not talking about the social appearance of reasonability, which can look like planning.)
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Planning is like worldbuilding, for most people it’s not that important to the story.
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I think the standard line is that people are more important than plans for this reason, and the quality of the plan is more of a signal of the ability of the people to produce plans in response to more reliable information in the future
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