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s_r_constantin's profile
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
Sarah Constantin
@s_r_constantin

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Sarah Constantin

@s_r_constantin

Math/ML/data-science person now working on solving aging...and helping with COVID19?! Founder, LRI and Daphnia Labs. Married to @oscredwin

Be
srconstantin.posthaven.com
Joined February 2019

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    1. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      I'm often in the position where I see startups with plans that *don't make sense* to me, as business models or as research programs. Sometimes brilliant people with stellar career track records join these companies. Sometimes they get highly funded. I'm puzzled.

      4 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
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      Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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      From my perspective, as a founder of an early-stage startup, I'm starting on the ground floor. Zero credibility. How can I earn credibility? Pretty much *only* by generating results and by having a well-thought-out plan with good evidence it can succeed.

      7:56 AM - 19 Apr 2019
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      • Conor White-Sullivan Ben Landau-Taylor Last Of The Fools bayes base bays based
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        2. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          In a biotech context, where actual revenue may be a decade away, and where even experimental data is expensive to collect (atoms, not bits!) pretty much *all* the credibility of my project resides in the plan. Capable people, too; but recruiting them reduces to the same problem.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        3. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          In fact, the people I *have* recruited and fundraised from so far, who are excellent, were sold on the basis of the plan: why it makes sense & seems likely that we'll discover anti-aging drugs through large phenotypic invertebrate drug screens.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        4. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          So, of course, one possibility is that I'm wrong when someone's plan doesn't make sense to me.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        5. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          I've definitely made mistakes of the form "that's not possible, the technology isn't good enough/cheap enough" based on outdated information, and it turns out things have rapidly progressed since I last checked on the field.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        6. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          But simple logic stuff like "a plan that depends on A, B, *and* C going right is riskier than a plan that depends on A, B, *or* C going right" or "experimental evidence is more credible than correlational evidence, ceterus paribus, in ascertaining whether an intervention works"

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        7. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          that kind of reasoning seems valid to me. Long chains of reasoning about an uncertain future are questionable, indeed -- that's why too much a priori reasoning is unwise -- but the logic I'm talking about is precisely *about* cutting down on model risk!

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        8. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          I think *careful* and *humble* logical arguments *are* valid ways to assess the prospects of an early-stage project. Ultimately, of course, data talks, bullshit walks. But before the final data is in...

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        9. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          The other possibility, of course, is that smart people join or fund early-stage startups with bad plans because they don't think the stated plan is actually a firm commitment. "If the plan is bad we can just change it later."

          3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        10. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          This might make sense in a world with rapid & cheap market feedback, like consumer software. It seems *nuts* in biotech, where you're investing a lot in expensive physical equipment for something that won't pay you for ten years!

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        11. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          True, if your plan is bad today, you can change it. But that means plan #2, or #3, or whatever, is going to have to actually get you from here to the big goal when nobody else yet has. And so, isn't the quality of plan #1 an indicator of how good the people are at planning?

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        12. Sarah Constantin‏ @s_r_constantin 19 Apr 2019
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          Do you think @elonmusk doesn't have a plan to get to Mars? Like, not a marketing pitch, a plan that is his careful best assessment of the critical path from here to there?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        13. End of conversation

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