The life-extension-skeptical theory I find most credible is "there is no conserved metabolic pathway governing lifespan that can be altered without serious harm to the organism. Aging is just overall damage/entropy; there is no "master switch" regulating its rate."
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Replying to @s_r_constantin
Usually when real life VOI come up, I find that it is useful to also think about ROI timescales in a complimentary analysis. Do you have any sense of roughly how many years it would take to EITHER find a master switch OR basically rule one out?
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Replying to @almostlikethat
I think it would take <10 years to: a.) get reliable, replicable results on which small molecules, out of diverse libraries, delay aging in multiple short-lived invertebrate species; b.) find out if any of them delay aging in rodents.
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Replying to @s_r_constantin @almostlikethat
If this approach doesn't work, anti-aging treatment is still possible but we'll have to work harder and more "meta", as in, developing better tools and doing more basic research.
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for instance: developing gene editing to the point that it's less error-prone & more effective at transfection; learning how to "reprogram" cells to stemness without risking cancer; learning how to synthesize organs in the lab; etc. True innovation.
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