https://thelri.org/blog-and-news/biomarkers-for-predicting-mortality/ … Most purported biomarkers for predicting all-cause mortality, with a few exceptions, have less predictive value than just asking patients to rate their own health.
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The Zhang methylation score might be quite a bit better, but I'd like to see a replication that doesn't come from his lab.
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A lot of the strong biomarkers of mortality are symptoms of cardiac stress like troponin or NT-proBNP, which are dramatically elevated during heart attacks and *slightly* elevated in people in poor cardiovascular health.
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And then there's GDF15, a general inflammatory biomarker with an HR for all-cause mortality of ~3.0. (High GDF15 = 3x more likely to die, adjusted for age and other risk factors.)
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(For comparison's sake, the adjusted HR of all-cause mortality for being a smoker is 2.0. The adjusted HR of being obese (BMI >35) is 1.35 or so, which is similar to the HR for the Horvath methylation clock, having high cholesterol, high insulin, or low testosterone.)
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In general, a 2.0 HR is my rule-of-thumb cutoff for "this effect is definitely A Thing, and not statistical massaging or observer bias."
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GDF15 is a cardioprotective compound, anti-macrophage inflammation, anti-proliferative in tumors, inversely associated with BMI, associated with cachexia in cancer, associated with poor prognosis in cancer, renal disease, etc.
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