"Zero Covid" – which, apparently, doesn't mean "eliminate Covid with vaccines, suppression and border controls", it seems to mean "lock down until there are zero Covid cases" – feels like fighting the last war. Vaccines change the calculus about how to get rid of Covid.
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I want to use lockdown to bring cases to a low, controllable number, so we can vaccinate the adult population & re-open. Hopefully that gives us herd immunity so new outbreaks die off quickly, like with measles. And border controls for now to avoid vaccine-resistant variants.
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The name "Zero Covid" is VERY confusing, since I consider this strategy to be a path to having "zero" (or approximately "zero") Covid.
But it suits extremists on both sides to describe a particular path to that end – lockdowns until we have no cases left – as "Zero Covid".
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It suits Covid Sceptics to amplify people who want to use a potentially v long lockdown to eliminate Covid, because it lets them dodge the fact that vaccines make their position totally indefensible and mad. Don't fall into their trap! Vaccines are how we will eliminate Covid.
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(This is why vaccine-resistant variants are the no. 1 risk right now, and the overwhelming priority ought to be to control the SA variant domestically, isolate immunocompromised Covid victims who may produce new variants, and close the borders to avoid others entering the UK.)
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I wish we HAD tried to use lockdown last June/July to eliminate Covid domestically. At that point it was the best option, we were nearly there, and it would have let us avoid a massive amount of death and lost output. But we have vaccines now – that changes everything.
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Finally, do not interpret this as me saying "We should open up now! Get back to normal!". Re-opening prematurely could be a disaster if an outbreak flares up in younger people and brings us to (3) – we need to get to (4) to get back to normal by summer.
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As you can see, the highest rate of adaptation (labelled '3' in the plot below) occurs during the intermediate phase, when there is still enough transmission to generate new variants as well as enough immunity to create an advantage for variants than can evade this immunity. 3/
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Who? Nobody on my "team" that I'm aware of thinks we should use lockdown rather than vaccines to get rid of Covid.
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It depends entirely on when it is implemented. If done at the outset e.g. NZ, it means lockdown whilst cases are low to achieve zero, then reopening supoorted by border control and outstanding track and trace.
Here where the horse has bolted, that is clearly not an option.
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I agree. Clearly countries like NZ and Aus that did it early did the best thing. Clearly us trying to get to that point via NPIs rather than vaccines is a fool's errand.
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