If Lipinski pulls this out, he immediately becomes a lame duck, since his seat would be Newman's for the taking in a presidential cycle. And the composition of the 2021 Democratic class matters much more for policy than the 2019 one.
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Why do you think she’d do better in a presidential year?
Republicans would be more likely to vote in the Republican primary, and more sporadic voters would come out, who tend to be more progressive
