Ryan GrimVerified account

I take no position on @FiveThirtyEight's accuracy, but Taleb is a babbling, incoherent mess. Witness: https://youtu.be/H11t5zBd3fU 

@nntaleb @FiveThirtyEight youre hitching your wagon to taleb hahaha youre clueless

Is @HuffPost publishing a final forecast map that people can set next to the @FiveThirtyEight map as election results come in?

Do you really think he is totally clueless about probability? Do you really think that?

Taleb argues that @FiveThirtyEight should be reporting odds closer to 1:1. You argue the opposite!

oh and by the way, @nntaleb blocked me from twitter about 5 minutes after I posted above, a true sign of intellectual integrity.

Wow.... @nntaleb ... thats the best you have? He sort of over-extends his expertise.

Lol

Just go to the betting markets and make a fortune if that is the case. We can forecast better than that. Taleb is clueless here.

You prob don't understand math in Taleb's tweets (that's the point, to confuse) but he is arguing all races are in 45%-55% range

You know who else is one of the world's foremost experts on probability? Nate fucking Silver.

The way I look at it @ryangrim at least you're a lot famouser than you were. (And you look great in this exchange. Nate, not so much.)

One bit of ammo, Why is Trump still getting a trendline adjustment, think he lost the trend, but not the adjustment.

Chicken.