jesus dude, you really are dense
1. 538's model projects Trump winning Nev http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/ … 2. 538 reports Clinton has basically won it w/EVhttp://fivethirtyeight.com/features/has-trump-already-lost-nevada/ …
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If you actually read the article, last paragraph says they have no idea what role EV will play. Good try @ trying to save face tho
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You clearly don't understand modeling at all, leave it to the pros.
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please leave polling to folks with Math skills, you are embarrassing yourself
@64s@lebidonvide@NateSilver538 -
Ryan, whats up with that 99% prediction ? Please leave polling to realMathematicians
#ShyTrumpers
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538’s model is wrong.
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And you know this how?
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It doesn’t account for the increase in hispanic turnout in early voting.
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Trump would need to win election day voting by 10% to win NV.
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Same is happening in AZ and FL.
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It is almost as if the 49% chance event may happen instead of the 51% chance one. Woah! You're blowing our minds
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either 538 or Jon Ralston is going to be very wrong. I'm with
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he's going off polls he can't wave a magic wand and predict a shift in Nevada turnout dipass
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So doesn't this show that Nate clearly doesn't have his 'thumb on the numbers'? The model works off polls not early voting.
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do you know what 'empirical data' means? literally the opposite of 'my opinion'
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@ipikak1@InterstellarPal@ryangrim Are you guys tracking 538 says Clinton is more likely to win? If she does, is 538 still "wrong"?@64s -
538 gives a forecast, and is best in the business. No matter who wins it will not be 'wrong'
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Exactly. And true even if they were worst in the biz. Shockingly tough concept for some to grasp.
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@ryangrim I feel that@NateSilver538 and team does good job saying their model doesn't take EV into account.#LetItGoBroThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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