Also that poll is horrible when you read it. Not even worth spending money on
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do you really still consider yourself a journalist?
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key caveats: – about 40% of Dems haven't heard enough about Nixon to have an opinion of her – poll was of registered voters, not likely primary voters – only a fraction will show up on primary day – in 2014, just 9% (!) of Dems voted in the gubernatorial primary (531k/5.84m)
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You cannot compare a CD with a 12% turnout and a challenger who worked it for two years while the incumbent took it for granted and lost touch with the vastly changed electorate. This is apples and oranges.
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Cuomo vs Teachout 2014 turnout: 9.3%
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And the polls in that race said Cuomo was going to win too
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Question was if polls of registered Ds are representative in an extreme low turnout environment. They arent. Polls suggested Cuomo would win, but missed Teachout's score by 7 pts (3 outside the MoE). Who knows what the electorate will look like this time? Not pollsters.
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We now have two top-tier pollsters showing Cuomo 30-40 points ahead, errors that big don't happen.
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It's not about pollster quality. It's that the proper sampling of registered Ds for an extreme low turnout election is fundamentally uncertain. They're polling registered Ds, but we know that a very small % of registered Dems (maybe as few as 1 in 10) will turnout. Which ones?
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I get it. This poll did registered Dems. Siena did likely voters. 4 years ago the polls were similar. Teachout had more going for her because of the uncertainty of fracking. Nixon's not getting any legs at all. She started at 19 and is at 23. Nothing happening at all.
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In what poll?
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How are polls so wrong?
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They aren't wrong
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They called me..left a message. I never answer the phone. So I did not get to tell them I am voting Nixon in the primary.
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Very few people want Cuomo to be knocked down more than me, but it's not really a sound comparison. People are polling the shit out of the statewide race using good samples, whereas the Crowley-Ocasio race was pretty much ignored.
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