Short thread. I keep seeing claims on how some places may have reached herd immunity & calculations on whether a variant is more virulent or disporportionately affects the young etc. These are not easy things to discern so let’s not do confident back-of-the-envelope calculations.
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In the P.1 example, there are many ways to explain the reports of severe disease in young people without invoking increased transmissibility or virulence. But this doesn't mean P.1 isn't more transmissible and/or virulent. 2/
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So in listing confounders, we need to be clear that transmissibility/virulence could be contributing and we'll understand more with time. It's a simple but important adjustment to messaging. 3/
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