Ronald Dorman

@rvd296

Novice belief updater & alum. Almost very nearly certain about uncertainty.

Raleigh, NC
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2013.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    14. velj 2019.

    Today my thesis was published, and I’m proud of it. It’s a novice attempt to contribute to a neglected space. Leadership selection is a forecast. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something.

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  2. 31. srp 2019.

    Not watching the debate. Reading this guy instead. Far better ROI.

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  3. 28. lip 2019.
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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    13. lip 2019.

    New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has signed a law ending vaccination exemptions based on religious belief — the latest attempt to address the worst measles outbreak the U.S. has experienced in decades.

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    9. lip 2019.

    here are many of the best policies to help fix the world, from our study on the best SDG targets, with 50 teams of top economists, and several Nobel Laureates The longer the line, the better the bang-for-the-buck

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    7. lip 2019.

    I agree with you. It would certainly be preferable if people read the actual research but it's even a stretch to get them to read an entire book these days. "Both" is the answer to your question.

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  7. 7. svi 2019.
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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Great audience! Thank you so much for the opportunity to keynote!

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  9. 18. ožu 2019.

    Rigorous collection and objective analysis for better discourse and informed decision making. Absolutely marvelous. Welcome back journalism, you’ve been sorely missed.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Interesting research for interesting times ... , DHS selection, training systems. Check out Dec. 2018 outstanding theses, . Or browse the full collection now available in Calhoun:

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  11. 14. velj 2019.

    "SHOOT THE HORSE AND BUILD A BETTER BARN DOOR: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERFORECASTING METHODOLOGY TO STRENGTHEN THE DHS LEADERSHIP SELECTION PROCESS"

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  12. 14. velj 2019.

    It's also a vehicle for saying thank you to a group of people who have (wittingly and unwittingly) given much to me. I am grateful.

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  13. 17. sij 2019.

    Would that this were the beginning of a trend to keep score and update beliefs. Step 2: high school forecasting tournaments.

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A new bumper sticker (not joking; I just ordered and received about ten of them). Yes, it's a quotation from the great Daniel Kahneman. Especially appropriate in an age of social media.

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    20. pro 2018.

    Bloomberg’s “top prognosticators” look & sound exactly as you’d expect: prestigious credentials & job titles & erudite articles. But don't over-rely on Kahneman’s bait-and-switch heuristic. None of that makes them great forecasters. You still actually need to keep score.

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    15. pro 2018.

    This was one of the best podcast sessions I have heard in years. Thanks and : Getting Better by Being Wrong: My Conversation with Poker Pro Annie Duke

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