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Prikvačeni tweet
Today my thesis was published, and I’m proud of it. It’s a novice attempt to contribute to a neglected space. Leadership selection is a forecast. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something. https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/61354 …
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Not watching the debate. Reading this guy instead. Far better ROI.https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/1156736189178818560 …
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Digital Bafflegab? Plus ça change, indeed.https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/how-to-call-bullshit-on-big-data-a-practical-guide …
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has signed a law ending vaccination exemptions based on religious belief — the latest attempt to address the worst measles outbreak the U.S. has experienced in decades.https://n.pr/2IeofYI
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
here are many of the best policies to help fix the world, from our study on the best SDG targets, with 50 teams of top economists, and several Nobel Laureates The longer the line, the better the bang-for-the-buck https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/post-2015-consensus …pic.twitter.com/f83xFIEB1h
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
I agree with you. It would certainly be preferable if people read the actual research but it's even a stretch to get them to read an entire book these days. "Both" is the answer to your question.https://twitter.com/rvd296/status/1136997140188860417 …
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
Great audience! Thank you so much
#GartnerDA for the opportunity to keynote!https://twitter.com/DavidSweenor/status/1107986313536589825 …
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Rigorous collection and objective analysis for better discourse and informed decision making. Absolutely marvelous. Welcome back journalism, you’ve been sorely missed.
@CPublicPresshttps://twitter.com/CPublicPress/status/1107680687962931200 …
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
Interesting research for interesting times ...
#guerrilla#deterrence, DHS#leadership selection, training#autonomous#swarm systems. Check out Dec. 2018 outstanding theses, https://calhoun.nps.edu/handle/10945/11539 …. Or browse the full collection now available in Calhoun: https://go.usa.gov/xEQSa pic.twitter.com/kHOWU0eJS7
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"SHOOT THE HORSE AND BUILD A BETTER BARN DOOR: EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERFORECASTING METHODOLOGY TO STRENGTHEN THE DHS LEADERSHIP SELECTION PROCESS"
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It's also a vehicle for saying thank you to a group of people who have (wittingly and unwittingly) given much to me. I am grateful.
@PTetlock@cb97424@SNNinDC@HIssvoran@WollmanL@dgardner@AnnieDuke@NTAStrindberg@DavidWBrannan@rodrigonieto@edge@hdr_frm@StanMcChrystalPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Would that this were the beginning of a trend to keep score and update beliefs. Step 2: high school forecasting tournaments.https://twitter.com/michaelkeenan_0/status/1085279360817324032 …
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
A new bumper sticker (not joking; I just ordered and received about ten of them). Yes, it's a quotation from the great Daniel Kahneman. Especially appropriate in an age of social media.
@tylercowenpic.twitter.com/UoYUow1C0x
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
Bloomberg’s “top prognosticators” look & sound exactly as you’d expect: prestigious credentials & job titles & erudite articles. But don't over-rely on Kahneman’s bait-and-switch heuristic. None of that makes them great forecasters. You still actually need to keep score.pic.twitter.com/Xt5oZg73SV
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Ronald Dorman proslijedio/la je Tweet
This was one of the best podcast sessions I have heard in years. Thanks
@annieduke and@farnamstreet: Getting Better by Being Wrong: My Conversation with Poker Pro Annie Duke http://bit.ly/2NNjskD pic.twitter.com/HEOU8dR2cE
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