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rudnicknoah's profile
Noah Wyhof-Rudnick
Noah Wyhof-Rudnick
Noah Wyhof-Rudnick
@rudnicknoah

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Noah Wyhof-Rudnick

@rudnicknoah

Awkward tall guy with glasses - Lover of elections, Steppenwolf & the Miami Dolphins, so basically a younger Jeb Bush. Married to @anniegetyourgui

Charles Town, WV
medium.com/@rudnicknoah
Joined June 2017

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    1. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

      Late night thread looking at Stacey Abram's race and the role of African American voters, especially a sneaking suspicion about rural AA voters not coming out in force for her, complete with maps and charts! 1/whenever I die on this hill

      3 replies 21 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

      First off, I'm looking at the basic maps of the margin and turnout change from the 2014 to the 2018 GA gubernatorial elections (blue is Dems, red is GOP), you can see the hard left pivot around Atlanta and the rural white turnout surge in the North and SEpic.twitter.com/jdzYybz64B

      11 replies 5 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

      I also looked at AA population by county according to the census and broke it up like this. The muted colors have an AA population of 25-50%, while the dark blue and green are majority black. Red is under 25% AA and blue and green separate out Atlanta from the rest of the statepic.twitter.com/2YKjlIlbFf

      1 reply 4 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

      First off we'll divide on this category by turnout change from 2014, the higher it is, the more the relative turnout jumped. Circle size denotes the number of votes in 2018pic.twitter.com/eGjx2BtqA9

      1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
      Show this thread
      Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

      It's clear here that whites turned out in force as AA votes struggled but interesting to note that while rural black counties fell behind and sort on size, majority AA counties did have have close to an equivalent turnout bump at only a 40% median growth

      7:30 PM - 11 Apr 2019
      • 3 Retweets
      • 10 Likes
      • Drord is New Jerseyan, just finds Mississippi neat Krishan Patel Eharding火 Aseemru Chairman Miao (總裁貓) Nicole Oertli King HallandaleBeach/Hollywood Blog Chad🇺🇸🇹🇹💸🗽♨️😒
      1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

          Now for the more interesting median shift, herewith positive being more of a shift to Republicans and negative being a shift towards Democratspic.twitter.com/OM48hakb2Y

          2 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

          Here the size of the county in each cohort was the big divider, Dems won better margins in large counties while bleeding hard in smaller ones. What's reallllly interesting to point out is how similar in margin change the rural black belt with 25-50% AA and the under 25% AA look

          2 replies 4 retweets 11 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

          Stacey Abram's did great in more metro areas and was able to make convincing swings in the mixed suburban Atlanta suburbs but there is a clear turnout and marginal overperformance over rural areas regardless of racial composition, which is a pretty cool breakdown

          2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick‏ @rudnicknoah 11 Apr 2019

          cc @leahaskarinam for asking and giving me the idea for this breakdown rather than back of the napkin math on county topline shifts

          3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        6. End of conversation

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