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Waiting and watching drives me crazy. Macabre wait on incubation periods and seeing what secondary spreading/mortality looks like outside China. May take many weeks to know. Containment may actually slow the answer (good) but viral characteristics may determine the outcome.
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About 8x more likely to die in a car than on a bus, commuter train, helicopter, private jet (all similar risk). 450x more likely to die in a car than a commercial aircraft.pic.twitter.com/Vx5CMNaAlx
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Good lay summary of the hope and the concern and the unknowns.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/31/can-this-virus-be-contained-probably-not/ …
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Robert Nelsen proslijedio/la je Tweet
Already OVER 36-48 hours "Florida group expected test results by mid-week but were informed Wednesday that a backlog at the only U.S. lab testing for the virus means they possibly won’t hear until the end of the week" cc
@mattocko@manal_mehta@rtnarchhttps://www.wtxl.com/news/florida-news/school-group-possibly-exposed-to-virus-confined-to-home …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Thailand is an interesting ex China node to watch.https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZU10Z …
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Robert Nelsen proslijedio/la je Tweet
So much good in Leila Janah. Fought the good fight. RIPhttps://twitter.com/samasource/status/1220880636812189699 …
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For those of you still worried that this is all overblown. 1. I hope you are right. 2. China has implemented the largest quarantine in the history of the planet for some reason. Most major cities are shut. They have the data.
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There is an emergency protocol that universities and hospitals, many whom have their own nCoV pcr capability, could apply for. Wondering if they are. All the major universities and large hospital systems can do it. No way can CDC handle the volume.
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Great summary of genome of nCoV.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/mining-coronavirus-genomes-clues-outbreak-s-origins …
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Robert Nelsen proslijedio/la je Tweet
Read the Lancet article. Same conclusions.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext#fig3 …
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CDC seem to be on this now. NIH amazing. Local health departments highly variable.
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What I am hearing from experts is if similar transmissibility ex-China (will need to watch) then viral peak in each node (where it starts in a region) would be about 60-90 days from the time there is sustained transmission. (An unknown, but doesn’t look proven ex-China yet.)
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Summary of the week. Be prudent. Prepare for the worst and Hope for the best. Follow the data and listen to the science. Do everything we can in the meantime. The cost of under reacting is worse than some worry. This is NOT an existential threat, but there are many unknowns.
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This crisis can be an example of USA-driven innovation in biotech benefitting the rest of the world. It is in the United States’ National interest to help China contain and cure this virus and future pandemics that we are sure to see. We need to be better prepared.
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Things to watch. 1. Transmission rates outside of China. Are they sustained and R0 still 2.5+, Asymptomatic spreading? 2. Is morbidity and mortality as it gets out of healthy travelers and into local populations (more at risk) similar?
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Experts say thing to watch is whether the transmission rates outside China are similar. If they are lower, that bodes well. Same, then basically most folks think the countermeasures will delay it but not stop. Goal is to delay the rate so we get closer to summer. Fingers crossed.
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Good nCoV summaries. https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus
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Estimates: multiple sources: 500,000+ infected:China. R0 2.5-3+ Doubling time 3 days. Unprecedented speed. Fatality rate range .1-1%+: truly unknown. 2-14 day incubation. 20% diagnosed at hospital need critical care. If sustained transmission, could infect 15-20 percent world.
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It is scary to have a candidate who went to Russia and came back under their influence: Bernie Sanders.
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