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In the 3,000-ballot scenario, Smith would need around 57% of what's left from LA, in the 2,000-ballot scenario that goes up to 60%. Neither accounts for the ~300-400 votes still left from the more GOP-friendly Ventura County portion.
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Looks like that was another 943 votes out of Ventura, leaving ~1,600 countywide (and probably around 200 to 300 from CA25).
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